A tough one to call -- you have four Best Picture nominees represented here, and all could make a claim to the top prize. A win here could foretell the BP winner...maybe.
- Little Miss Sunshine
Writer: Michael Arndt
Oscar History: First nomination for Arndt.
Awards: Writers Guild winner.
Pros: The most well-liked movie of the bunch, Sunshine has got some powerful fans. Sundance graduates have done well in this category in recent history.
Cons: Too cutesy? Not serious enough? Did the pageant/strip scene turn conservative voters off?
Odds: Very good, especially after the WGA win.
- The Queen
Writer: Peter Morgan
Oscar History: First time for Morgan.
Awards: Golden Globe, Los Angeles and New York Film Critics Circle winner.
Pros: Serious subject matter taken not-so-seriously; historical movies do well in Screenplay…
Cons: …but usually in Adapted, not Original. Everything about this movie is overshadowed by Mirren.
Odds: Don’t count it out.
- Babel
Writer: Guillermo Ariaga
Oscar History: Ariaga is another first-timer.
Awards: None.
Pros: Ariaga’s body of work (Amores Perros, 21 Grams) is very well-respected. Weaving four distinct stories into one film is no simple feat…
Cons: …but it’s too bad no one has really noticed. Not one precursor win for the screenplay of the movie with the most nominations of any BP.
Odds: Unless there is a Babel sweep in the making, don’t count on it.
- Letters from Iwo Jima
Writers: Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis
Oscar History: Yamashita’s first nomination; Haggis has two Oscars for Crash (Original Screenplay and Picture) and two other nominations (Directing for Crash; Adapted Screenplay for Million Dollar Baby)
Awards: None
Pros: Haggis is hot, maybe the hottest screenwriter out there – he’s the only previous winner in either of the screenplay categories.
Cons: The screenplay got no precursor love – if it gets discovered late, it may have a shot. Foreign language films rarely get screenplay Oscars.
Odds: Not out, but not looking good.
- Pan’s Labyrinth
Writer: Guillermo del Toro
Oscar History: Del Toro’s first nomination.
Awards: None.
Pros: Labyrinth is the late bloomer in this year’s Oscar race – its six nominations are no fluke.
Cons: The foreign language thing hurts. The film is garnering more notices for its spectacle than its script.
Odds: Look for Labyrinth to win in other categories – but not here.
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