Final Predictions

The wild-and-wooly Oscar ride is just about over, and it’s time to make the final predictions. Oy.

Upsets and surprises have become the norm at the Oscars – which is amazing considering how much more time and energy Oscar prognosticators spend nowadays crunching numbers, assessing trends and following buzz. Two years ago was supposedly Scorcese’s year – until Million Dollar Baby came out of nowhere and won the hearts of the Academy. Last year, Brokeback Mountain won every precursor down the pike, but it came down to voter apprehension, allowing Crash to sneak past and win. Keep your facts and formulas – the human factor is the key to who wins.

And there’s the rub: we don’t know how the 5900-odd members of the AMPAS are feeling right now. Contentious? Happy? Hungry? Full of love? Full of beans? We’ll only know after the fact. In the meantime, we guess.

I’m going to go out on several limbs this year – mainly because of the factor of the unknown. Besides, what’s life without adventure?

Picture: Letters from Iwo Jima

Let’s break it down this way:

If you are inclined to go with history, pick Babel -- the most nominations of all the BP films, including Director and Editing, two acting nods, serious subject matter etc.

If you think the most successful movie wins, go with The Departed -- big box office, heady stars, and Scorcese’s DGA win ain’t too shabby either…

If you think the vote is all about the “awwwwww” factor, pick Little Miss Sunshine. The only heartwarmer of the bunch…

So, why Letters?

Because I think this is an odd year. Because I think the bulk of the Academy didn’t see it until after the nominations came out – and it still got enough love to get nominated. Because the flaws in the other movies are the type of flaws that usually pre-empt a win (too confusing, too cute, too stiff, too violent.) Because the Academy might jump at the chance of seeing both Eastwood and Steven Spielberg (one of Letters’ producers) on stage at the same time. Most of all - because I believe after they see Letters they won’t have a choice.

Director: Martin Scorcese, The Departed

The film world finally showed Scorcese the love this year – he wins hands down.

Actor: Peter O’Toole, Venus

It’s an interesting category – four out of the five nominees are the only nominations for their respective film (something that happens more often in Actress.) It’s been all Whitaker in the precursors, but I think the Academy will take the opportunity to reward a veteran actor that’s never won – they usually do.

Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen

‘Nuff said.

Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

This is even tougher for me than Actor. Murphy, like Whitaker, has been the front-runner forever – but I’ve got this Jack Palance-type feeling about Arkin.

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

She weathered the backlash like a pro. She may not deserve it, but she’s definitely earned it.

Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine

Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed

Best Picture consolation prizes (or, if you’re so inclined, a portent of things to come.)

Foreign Language: Pan’s Labyrinth

I’ve heard a surge for the German black comedy The Lives of Others – if you want to pick an upset here, go with that. For me, Pan’s Labyrinth could take home the most Oscars of the night, so I don’t think I’ll pick against it here.

Animated Feature: Cars

The Annie winner usually wins the Oscar.

And the rest…

Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth

Cinematography: Children of Men

Costume Design: Dreamgirls

Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

Documentary Short Subject: Two Hands

Editing: Babel

Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth

Score: Philip Glass, Notes on a Scandal

Song: “I Need to Wake Up” from An Inconvenient Truth

Animated Short: The Little Matchgirl

Live Action Short: West Bank Story

Sound Editing: Letters from Iwo Jima

Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls

Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest