Satellite Nominees

The first nominations of the year are out, courtesy of the International Press Academy. (I know: who?) The Satellite Awards (formerly known as the "Golden" Satellites, until a certain other foreign press organization claimed the word for their "globes) are all over the place -- they split up almost every main category between drama and musical/comedy. Still -- last year Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, Alan Arkin, Jennifer Hudson, Martin Scorcese and The Departed either won or got nominated by the IPA, so at the very least we can see these as prescient, if not influential.

The main nominations (for the entire list, click here):

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Julie Christie, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart" (Paramount Vantage)
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Stephanie Daley" (Regent Releasing)
Keira Knightly, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Laura Linney, "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Denzel Washington, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
Josh Brolin, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Christian Bale, "Rescue Dawn" (MGM)
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"(Roadside Attractions)
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent Pictures)

More than one option

• (Person) Tommy Lee Jones
• (Person) Tommy Lee Jones

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Katherine Heigl, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Amy Adams, "Enchanted" (Walt Disney Pictures)
Ellen Page, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Emily Mortimer, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)
Cate Blanchett, "I’m Not There" (The Weinstein Company)

More than one option

• (Person) Amy Adams
  Actor, Voice
• (Person) Amy Adams
• (Person) Amy Adams

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Richard Gere, "The Hoax" Miramax
Seth Rogen, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Ben Kingsley "You Kill Me" Ifc Films
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Clive Owen, "Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
Don Cheadle, "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Emmanuelle Seigner, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax Films)
Taraji P. Henson "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jeff Daniels, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Brian Cox, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Ben Foster, "3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)
Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jessie James" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Lookout" Miramax
"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
"Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
"No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
"3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)

MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
"Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
"Juno"(Fox Searchlight)
"Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
"Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)

DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)
Olivier Dahan, "La Vie En Rose" (Picture House Entertainment)
David Cronenberg, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Sidney Lumet, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Scott Frank, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Diablo Cody, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Kelly Masterson, "Before the Devil Knows You’Re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Nancy Oliver,"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Steven Knight, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
James Vanderbilt, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Christopher Hampton "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
David Benioff, "The Kite Runner" (Paramount Vantage)
Sarah Polley,"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus,"Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)

Most obvious miss: Atonement in the Drama category. Crash missed the IPA nomination two years ago, so this ain't no big thing. But it's interesting.

Great love for The Lookout, a film I enjoyed quite a bit earlier this year -- although how do you spread that love around and nothing for its star, Joseph Gordon-Levitt?

Best Actor Front Runners

Some old names, some new faces, and some possible Oscar winner repeats...

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Three past nominations and one win – the Academy loves him. If he can get a nod for his cartoonish work in Gangs of New York, he's a shoo-in here.

2. James McAvoy, Atonement

Got some nice recognition last year in the title role of The Last King of Scotland. If the female audience sighs when you’re onscreen, you’ve got a shot.

3. Denzel Washington, American Gangster

He picked up his only lead acting Oscar playing a baddie in Training Day – his intensity and onscreen presence is hard to deny.

4. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd

I could see Depp missing here, but he’s always high in the buzz early.

5. George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Clooney should see nominations coming down the road for years to come – he’s a popular boy in Hollywood.

6. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War

Seems like forever since we’ve put Hanks’ name in the ring. Comeback player of the year?

7. Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

If the early buzz is any indication, he could sneak in on a wave of Wild love.

8. Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah or No Country for Old Men

Probably for the latter, even though Elah was a bigger role.

9. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

More likely a Supporting guy this year for Charlie Wilson’s War.

10. Frank Langella, Started Out in the Evening

The “old guy making a movie about being an old guy” nomination. Worked for O'Toole last year, didn't it?

Best Director Front Runners

Thank God Martin Scorcese won last year -- we can finally take the Marty topic off the table and talk about some new directors. We have the makings of an interesting race -- a few up-and-comers, an actor-turned-director, a couple of beloved indie touchstones and two bona fide directorial legends who have never won. Sorta like Marty -- OK, that's the last time his name comes up...

1. Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

Even if Country proves too violent for the Academy (and after last year's win for The Departed, the Academy won't have a leg to stand on), the Coen brothers are well overdue for a win. If the buzz continues, the nomination is a shoo-in.

2. Joe Wright, Atonement

Hollywood loved what he did with the whole Pride and Prejudice thing.

3. Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson’s War

Hasn’t won since The Graduate. Hasn't really been in the running lately.

4. Sean Penn, Into the Wild

The Academy loves actors-turned-directors, especially if their politics match.

5. Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Can you say “overdue?” The 83-year-old director has been nominated for 12 Angry Men, Serpico, Dog Day Afternoon, Network and The Verdict. Baby, that's a career. The Director category isn't known for makeup awards, but if Polanski can win...

6. Ridley Scott, American Gangster

Can you say “overdue” again? I can. I can also say "overrated."

7. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

A well-regarded screenwriter with a good debut. Probably not a top-five guy here.

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Could jump up if the movie does well and the critics drool over it. Like Wes Anderson, he's more fawned over by the critical folks than by the Academy.

9. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Schnabel won the Cannes award for Best Director.

10. Marc Forster, The Kite Runner

Fast becoming a director to be reckoned with. I can see Forster jumping up a few spots after the film's release.

Best Picture front-runners

This is going to be an interesting race -- the installed front-runner features a second-time director and some awfully young stars; it's closest competitor is drenched in blood and tension, and behind those two movies are films with star power and uncertainty. In other words, this baby be wide open.

These lists, by the way, are built purely on online buzz, hearsay, early reviews and pure guesswork. Don't take 'em to the bank just yet.

1. Atonement (Focus Features)

Director: Joe Wright

Cast: Kiera Knightley, James McAvoy, Vanessa Redgrave, Romola Garai, Saorise Ronan

Release Date: December 7

You have to go back to Shakespeare in Love to find a true costume romance winning Best Picture – and the last three winners (The Departed, Crash, Million Dollar Baby) were decidedly modern. My guess is that the Academy is hungry for another, and Atonement should more than fit the bill. Atonement has a certain English Patient-type vibe – devastatingly beautiful leads, tragic love, war and separation. Wright and Knightley worked together in the much-lauded Pride and Prejudice, and McAvoy is fresh off his title role in The Last King of Scotland. If the box office is good (and judging by the success of Ian McEwan’s novel, it should be) Atonement should be the early front-runner.

2. No Country for Old Men (Miramax)

Directors: Ethan and Joel Coen

Cast: Josh Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, Kelly McDonald, Woody Harrelson

Release Date: in theaters now

After two attempts at Hollywood-izing their style – one mediocre (Intolerable Cruelty) and one awful (The Ladykillers) – the Coen Brothers return to the themes of Blood Simple and Fargo: crime, small towns, decent folks in over their heads, and an incomprehensible menace. Last year’s win for The Departed proved that the Academy can stand a little blood and violence – which is good, ‘cause No Country has that in spades. Bardem and Jones are already getting whispers of acting nods (in the case of Bardem, more like a scream) and the Coen brothers should get directing and writing consideration. This has got the early buzz – although it seems like one of those films that’ll get all the praise and very little Oscar hardware.

3. Juno (Fox Searchlight)

Director: Jason Reitman

Cast: Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, JK Simmons

Release Date: December 5

The audience favorite at Toronto, Juno looks like the Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation candidate of 2007 – a quirky independent-ish movie about a teenager who gets knocked up by her best friend and decides to have the baby and give it up for adoption. Buzz is high – first-time screenwriter Diablo Cody is the talk of the town, Reitman appears to have built momentum after his first feature, Thank You for Smoking, and the cast is a who’s who of who’s cool. This one could catch fire.

4. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage/Focus Features)

Director: Sean Penn

Cast: Emile Hirsch, Catherine Keener, Hal Holbrook, Vince Vaughn, Jena Malone

Release Date: September 21 – I believe it’s still in theaters

This one seems to be ranking on a lot of pre-precursor lists, which surprised me. I haven’t seen it, and I certainly haven’t heard a ton of buzz on it, but folks close to the industry are giving it mentions, so we’ll see. The most talk I’ve heard is for Sean Penn’s directing and for Hal Holbrook, an actor who might fit the “due” slot in Supporting Actor.

5. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal)

Director: Mike Nichols

Cast: Tom Hanks, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Julia Roberts, Ned Beatty, Amy Adams

Release Date: December 25

With most “topical” war movies falling by the way side (Rendition; The Kingdom; Lions for Lambs) this one looks like it could worm its way into the top five. A true story of a Congressman assisting Afghanistan in a covert war against the Soviet Union in the early 80s, Charlie Wilson’s War gets to be the Iraq War movie without having to take place in the present day. Hanks, Hoffman and Roberts have all won lead acting Oscars, and Nichols is a well-respected name. No one has seen the movie yet, but the Oscar pedigree can’t be ignored.

6. American Gangster (Universal)

Director: Ridley Scott

Cast: Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Ruby Dee, Ted Levine, Josh Brolin

Release Date: November 2, 2007

Lots to love here – big name director who has never won. Dueling Oscar-winning stars (although they don’t appear together until the end of the film.) Legendary actress Ruby Dee in a role destined for Supporting Actress. Big subject matter. Good box office. And yeah, I’m not seeing it ending up in the top five. But if one of the above films falters or under-performs, it could sneak in as this year’s Departed.

7. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.)

Director: Tony Gilroy

Cast: George Clooney, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, Sydney Pollack, Michael O’Keefe

Release Date: October 12

Talky brainy thrillers don’t tend to win over the Academy. But not all talky brainy thrillers star recent Oscar winner and Hollywood god Clooney, Academy favorite Wilkinson and criminally overdue Swinton. It’s a weak year for these kinds of movies – I can see the Academy making room for Clayton, especially if the three actors mentioned above get nods.

8. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage/Dreamworks)

Director: Marc Forster

Cast: Khalid Abdalla, Ali Dinesh, Abdul Salam Yusoufzai, Elham Ehsas

Release Date: December 14

Forster’s track record has been very good -- Monster’s Ball garnered an Oscar for Halle Berry, Finding Neverland picked up a surprising amount of Academy love, and Stranger Than Fiction was highly-regarded as well. Kite Runner – based on the beloved novel of the same name – might be his best shot so far. Serious, moving, relevant – but not without controversy.

9. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage)

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

Cast: Daniel Day-Lewis, Paul Dano, Kevin J. O’Connor, Ciaran Hinds, Dillon Freasier

Release Date: December 26

The long-awaited follow-up to 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love finds Paul Thomas Anderson in unfamiliar territory – a loose adaptation of an Upton Sinclair novel about oil, greed and evangelism at the turn of the century. Day-Lewis is an Academy darling, and I’ve heard Dano – nearly mute in Little Miss Sunshine – impresses the hell out of everyone as a child preacher with supposed healing powers. Other than No Country, this might be the most anticipated film of the year for movie snobs – which means it has a good chance of flopping with the Academy.

10. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks)

Director: Tim Burton

Cast: Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, Sasha Baron Cohen, Timothy Spall

Release Date: December 21

After the last few musical-to-film flops (Phantom, Rent, Producers) one has to approach Sweeney Todd with a skeptical eye in terms of Oscar potential. There’s probably enough Golden Globe love here to keep the movie in consideration – the rest will depend on box office. Look for Burton as a dark horse Director candidate – is it really possible he’s never even been nominated?

Oscar Season 2007!

With the last spoonful of stuffing -- the final drop of gravy -- the conclusive (and unnecessary) slice of pie -- it's time:

Oscar season is here. Yay! No more sequels, action flicks, romantic comedy copies, horror porn or movies that have been sitting on the shelf for three years. I ushered in the season with a pre-Thanksgiving viewing of No Country for Old Men (amazing) and immediately felt the urge to dig deep into the upcoming Oscar-bait movies -- which I spent most of Thanksgiving doing (between courses, of course.)

It stands to be an interesting year -- no Best Picture front-runners (yet), no "overdue" candidates on the horizon, no obvious fanboy picks (unless we start to see some heavy 300/Beowulf politicking); 2007 might just be a year where the best nominees win. Hehehehe. OK, that was funny. Sorry -- I'm still working my way through my Thanksgiving hangover. I'll come to my senses eventually.

The first blush of Oscar charts are on their way. Stay tuned...