Oscar Analysis: Adapted Screenplay

This week we'll be looking at the big races, culminating in the final predictions on Friday. I'm going to need the whole week, 'cause it's a weird year...

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Departed

Writer: William Monahan

Oscar History: First-time nominee.

Awards: Writers Guild winner. Boston, New York Film Critics Circle, Golden Satellite, and Southeastern Florida Film Critics winner.

Pros: The Departed won the most precursor awards of any other film nominated in this category. Oh, and it’s also the only BP nominee represented in Adapted.

Cons: People are still scratching their heads over the final 30 minutes of the film – and that fault does lie with the screenplay (or at least, audiences will blame the screenwriter before they ever blame Scorcese.)

Odds: The favorite – could be the BP consolation prize.

2. Children of Men

Writers: David Arata, Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby and Timothy J Sexton

Oscar History: Cuaron was nominated in 2002 for Y tu mama tambien. The rest are first-time nominees.

Awards: USC Scripter winner.

Pros: The Scripter win was nice, and Children did pick up three fairly prestigious nominations: Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography.

Cons: It’s a downer, and downers need to be released earlier in the season so that audiences have a chance to come back and analyze it for its greatness rather than its emotional affect. Also -- beware of screenplays that list more than three authors -- they rarely win.

Odds: The dark horse.

3. Borat: Cultural Learnings for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazahkstan

Writers: Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Mazer, and Todd Phillips

Oscar History: All five are first-time Oscar nominees.

Awards: Writers Guild nomination

Pros: The only comedy of the bunch, Borat stands out like a sore thumb thrust between the testicles of….never mind. Its nomination is a testament to the respect the writers give this script. Also -- out of all the nominees in this category, this was the one movie people talked about all year.

Cons: Is it a script, or just a combination of gags? Comedies haven’t done well in competition, especially those without Best Picture nominations (last one: The Producers in 1968.) Note the Rule of Three as mentioned in the Children entry.

Odds: Not very nice.

4. Little Children

Writers: Todd Field and Tom Perotta

Awards History: Field received a nomination for 2001’s In the Bedroom. This is Perotta’s first nomination.

Awards: San Francisco Film Critics.

Pros: Respect for Field.

Cons: Lack of buzz and box office.

Odds: Longshot.

5. Notes on a Scandal

Writer: Patrick Marber

Oscar History: First time nominee.

Awards: No major wins.

Pros: Marber is an up-and-coming screenwriter…

Cons: …but that isn’t enough this year. And taking into account he was snubbed for last year’s Closer – a movie with considerably more buzz – Marber should be happy he was nominated.

Odds: The same as a young boy actually hooking up with a hot art teacher who looks like Cate Blanchett.