The AMPAS released the not-so-short list of 59 eligible songs for the Best Song category. Click here for the list.
Enchanted, Hairspray and Walk Hard are probably the early favorites for nominations, as is the Eddie Vedder song from Into the Wild. And if one of the songs from Once doesn't get nominated, I'm gonna raise a fuss. It ain't gonna be pretty.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Precursor Mania!
Holy shit. I had no idea end-of-the-year critics awards were coming down the pike so fast. Damn. I guess it really is December.
I'm working on my Golden Globe predictions (they announce tomorrow morning -- holy shit!) but here's a quick recap (click on the links to see the entire list of nominees):
Broadcast Film Critics Awards (Critics' Choice) -- a major Oscar barometer. No big surprises here -- their top ten films:
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
Los Angeles Film Critics -- they went cuckoo for There Will Be Blood, giving it Best Picture, Director for Paul Thomas Anderson, Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis and runner-up prizes for Cinematography, Screenplay and Score.
New York Film Critics Circle -- meanwhile, on the other coast, the NY film elite put their crown on No Country for Old Men, giving love to the Coen brothers for directing and screenplay and Supporting Actor for Javier Bardem
New York Film Critics Online -- kind of like the Critics Circle, except they're...well...online. They gave their top prize to There Will Be Blood and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
San Francisco -- top prizes went to The Assassination of Jesse James, the Coen brothers for directing, George Clooney and Julie Christie for lead, Amy Ryan and Casey Affleck for supporting.
Washington DC -- No Country for Old Men, the Coens, Clooney, Christie, Bardem and Ryan
Boston -- No Country, Julian Schnabel (for Diving Bell), Frank Langella and Marion Cottiliard for lead, Bardem and Ryan.
It's been an early No Country/There Will Be Blood tug-o-war. Based on what I've seen (No Country -- brilliant) and what I've heard (Blood -- early reviews indicate greatness) they seem to me to be two of the oddest early front runners in recent Oscar history. Violent, dark films by independent directors -- not the usual Academy fare. Seems there is probability that a film more mainstream, less dark might be able to gain some momentum -- Juno? Atonement? Into the Wild (which led the BFCAs with seven nominations)?
As for the acting races, the Clooney/Day-Lewis matchup is going to be a good one -- two highly respected movie stars in very different roles. The Christie/Cottiliard race is one to watch as well -- although you'll be hard pressed to find folks who have actually seen both of their movies. In supporting, Amy Ryan has been the big surprise -- the front-runner was thought to be Blanchett in I'm Not There. Perhaps since Blanchett just won two years ago for another celebrity impersonation (Kate Hepburn) that critics are looking the other way. Ryan's a worthy alternative. Meanwhile, Bardem looks all but unstoppable for Supporting Actor, with Hal Holbrook getting the early old-guy-never-won vote and Casey Affleck getting the young-guy-better-than-Ben love.
Next up: Golden Globe predix.
I'm working on my Golden Globe predictions (they announce tomorrow morning -- holy shit!) but here's a quick recap (click on the links to see the entire list of nominees):
Broadcast Film Critics Awards (Critics' Choice) -- a major Oscar barometer. No big surprises here -- their top ten films:
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
Los Angeles Film Critics -- they went cuckoo for There Will Be Blood, giving it Best Picture, Director for Paul Thomas Anderson, Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis and runner-up prizes for Cinematography, Screenplay and Score.
New York Film Critics Circle -- meanwhile, on the other coast, the NY film elite put their crown on No Country for Old Men, giving love to the Coen brothers for directing and screenplay and Supporting Actor for Javier Bardem
New York Film Critics Online -- kind of like the Critics Circle, except they're...well...online. They gave their top prize to There Will Be Blood and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
San Francisco -- top prizes went to The Assassination of Jesse James, the Coen brothers for directing, George Clooney and Julie Christie for lead, Amy Ryan and Casey Affleck for supporting.
Washington DC -- No Country for Old Men, the Coens, Clooney, Christie, Bardem and Ryan
Boston -- No Country, Julian Schnabel (for Diving Bell), Frank Langella and Marion Cottiliard for lead, Bardem and Ryan.
It's been an early No Country/There Will Be Blood tug-o-war. Based on what I've seen (No Country -- brilliant) and what I've heard (Blood -- early reviews indicate greatness) they seem to me to be two of the oddest early front runners in recent Oscar history. Violent, dark films by independent directors -- not the usual Academy fare. Seems there is probability that a film more mainstream, less dark might be able to gain some momentum -- Juno? Atonement? Into the Wild (which led the BFCAs with seven nominations)?
As for the acting races, the Clooney/Day-Lewis matchup is going to be a good one -- two highly respected movie stars in very different roles. The Christie/Cottiliard race is one to watch as well -- although you'll be hard pressed to find folks who have actually seen both of their movies. In supporting, Amy Ryan has been the big surprise -- the front-runner was thought to be Blanchett in I'm Not There. Perhaps since Blanchett just won two years ago for another celebrity impersonation (Kate Hepburn) that critics are looking the other way. Ryan's a worthy alternative. Meanwhile, Bardem looks all but unstoppable for Supporting Actor, with Hal Holbrook getting the early old-guy-never-won vote and Casey Affleck getting the young-guy-better-than-Ben love.
Next up: Golden Globe predix.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
NBR Winners -- I'm a freakin' genius
I rarely get any predicts right this early in the season, so pardon me if I shine for a moment...
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
'Nuff said. Stick with the kid!
The rest of the winners:
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
'Nuff said. Stick with the kid!
The rest of the NBR Top Ten:
The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Into The Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars And The Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
The rest of the winners:
Director: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Actor: George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Actress: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Foreign Film: The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Documentary: Body of War
Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Ensemble Cast: No Country for Old Men
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, Juno
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, Juno and Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
National Board of Review predictions
The National Board of Review announces their winners on Wednesday -- and while this 100+ group of East Coast film academics has a reputation for being easily influenced by studios, the fact is that their winners usually end up in the final Oscar race. Especially in regards to Best Picture -- only two NBR Best Film winners since 1987 (Quills and Gods and Monsters) didn't also receive an Best Picture Oscar nomination. Take tomorrow's NBR Best Film and stick it your top five Oscar Best Picture predictions -- and keep it there.
They've been on a nostalgia trip as of late -- since 2000, the only movie taking place in the present day to win was Mystic River. Don't know if it's a trend, but it's something to think about.
My Predictions:
Best Film: No Country for Old Men
Top Ten Films:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Once
The Savages
Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and The Savages
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Best Director: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Directorial Debut: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Best Ensemble: Juno
Breakthrough Male: Michael Cera, Juno and Superbad
Breakthrough Female: Ellen Page, Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Best Documentary: No End in Sight
Best Animated: Persepolis
They've been on a nostalgia trip as of late -- since 2000, the only movie taking place in the present day to win was Mystic River. Don't know if it's a trend, but it's something to think about.
My Predictions:
Best Film: No Country for Old Men
Top Ten Films:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Once
The Savages
Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and The Savages
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Best Director: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Directorial Debut: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Best Ensemble: Juno
Breakthrough Male: Michael Cera, Juno and Superbad
Breakthrough Female: Ellen Page, Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Best Documentary: No End in Sight
Best Animated: Persepolis
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