Oscar-eligible songs

The AMPAS released the not-so-short list of 59 eligible songs for the Best Song category. Click here for the list.


Enchanted, Hairspray and Walk Hard are probably the early favorites for nominations, as is the Eddie Vedder song from Into the Wild. And if one of the songs from Once doesn't get nominated, I'm gonna raise a fuss. It ain't gonna be pretty.

Precursor Mania!

Holy shit. I had no idea end-of-the-year critics awards were coming down the pike so fast. Damn. I guess it really is December.

I'm working on my Golden Globe predictions (they announce tomorrow morning -- holy shit!) but here's a quick recap (click on the links to see the entire list of nominees):

Broadcast Film Critics Awards (Critics' Choice) -- a major Oscar barometer. No big surprises here -- their top ten films:
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Los Angeles Film Critics -- they went cuckoo for There Will Be Blood, giving it Best Picture, Director for Paul Thomas Anderson, Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis and runner-up prizes for Cinematography, Screenplay and Score.


New York Film Critics Circle -- meanwhile, on the other coast, the NY film elite put their crown on No Country for Old Men, giving love to the Coen brothers for directing and screenplay and Supporting Actor for Javier Bardem

New York Film Critics Online -- kind of like the Critics Circle, except they're...well...online. They gave their top prize to There Will Be Blood and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

San Francisco -- top prizes went to The Assassination of Jesse James, the Coen brothers for directing, George Clooney and Julie Christie for lead, Amy Ryan and Casey Affleck for supporting.

Washington DC -- No Country for Old Men, the Coens, Clooney, Christie, Bardem and Ryan

Boston -- No Country, Julian Schnabel (for Diving Bell), Frank Langella and Marion Cottiliard for lead, Bardem and Ryan.


It's been an early No Country/There Will Be Blood tug-o-war. Based on what I've seen (No Country -- brilliant) and what I've heard (Blood -- early reviews indicate greatness) they seem to me to be two of the oddest early front runners in recent Oscar history. Violent, dark films by independent directors -- not the usual Academy fare. Seems there is probability that a film more mainstream, less dark might be able to gain some momentum -- Juno? Atonement? Into the Wild (which led the BFCAs with seven nominations)?

As for the acting races, the Clooney/Day-Lewis matchup is going to be a good one -- two highly respected movie stars in very different roles. The Christie/Cottiliard race is one to watch as well -- although you'll be hard pressed to find folks who have actually seen both of their movies. In supporting, Amy Ryan has been the big surprise -- the front-runner was thought to be Blanchett in I'm Not There. Perhaps since Blanchett just won two years ago for another celebrity impersonation (Kate Hepburn) that critics are looking the other way. Ryan's a worthy alternative. Meanwhile, Bardem looks all but unstoppable for Supporting Actor, with Hal Holbrook getting the early old-guy-never-won vote and Casey Affleck getting the young-guy-better-than-Ben love.

Next up: Golden Globe predix.

NBR Winners -- I'm a freakin' genius

I rarely get any predicts right this early in the season, so pardon me if I shine for a moment...

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men


'Nuff said. Stick with the kid!

The rest of the NBR Top Ten:

The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford

Atonement

The Bourne Ultimatum

The Bucket List

Into The Wild

Juno

The Kite Runner

Lars And The Real Girl

Michael Clayton

Sweeney Todd

The rest of the winners:

Director: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd

Actor: George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Actress: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Foreign Film: The Diving Bell And The Butterfly

Documentary: Body of War

Animated Feature: Ratatouille

Ensemble Cast: No Country for Old Men

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, Juno

Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone

Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, Juno and Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men

National Board of Review predictions

The National Board of Review announces their winners on Wednesday -- and while this 100+ group of East Coast film academics has a reputation for being easily influenced by studios, the fact is that their winners usually end up in the final Oscar race. Especially in regards to Best Picture -- only two NBR Best Film winners since 1987 (Quills and Gods and Monsters) didn't also receive an Best Picture Oscar nomination. Take tomorrow's NBR Best Film and stick it your top five Oscar Best Picture predictions -- and keep it there.

They've been on a nostalgia trip as of late -- since 2000, the only movie taking place in the present day to win was Mystic River. Don't know if it's a trend, but it's something to think about.

My Predictions:

Best Film: No Country for Old Men

Top Ten Films:

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Once
The Savages

Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and The Savages

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose

Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There

Best Director: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Directorial Debut: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Best Ensemble: Juno

Breakthrough Male: Michael Cera, Juno and Superbad

Breakthrough Female: Ellen Page, Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno

Best Documentary: No End in Sight

Best Animated: Persepolis

Satellite Nominees

The first nominations of the year are out, courtesy of the International Press Academy. (I know: who?) The Satellite Awards (formerly known as the "Golden" Satellites, until a certain other foreign press organization claimed the word for their "globes) are all over the place -- they split up almost every main category between drama and musical/comedy. Still -- last year Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, Alan Arkin, Jennifer Hudson, Martin Scorcese and The Departed either won or got nominated by the IPA, so at the very least we can see these as prescient, if not influential.

The main nominations (for the entire list, click here):

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Julie Christie, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart" (Paramount Vantage)
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Stephanie Daley" (Regent Releasing)
Keira Knightly, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Laura Linney, "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Denzel Washington, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
Josh Brolin, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Christian Bale, "Rescue Dawn" (MGM)
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"(Roadside Attractions)
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent Pictures)

More than one option

• (Person) Tommy Lee Jones
• (Person) Tommy Lee Jones

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Katherine Heigl, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Amy Adams, "Enchanted" (Walt Disney Pictures)
Ellen Page, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Emily Mortimer, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)
Cate Blanchett, "I’m Not There" (The Weinstein Company)

More than one option

• (Person) Amy Adams
  Actor, Voice
• (Person) Amy Adams
• (Person) Amy Adams

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Richard Gere, "The Hoax" Miramax
Seth Rogen, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Ben Kingsley "You Kill Me" Ifc Films
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Clive Owen, "Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
Don Cheadle, "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Emmanuelle Seigner, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax Films)
Taraji P. Henson "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jeff Daniels, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Brian Cox, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Ben Foster, "3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)
Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jessie James" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Lookout" Miramax
"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
"Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
"No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
"3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)

MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
"Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
"Juno"(Fox Searchlight)
"Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
"Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)

DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)
Olivier Dahan, "La Vie En Rose" (Picture House Entertainment)
David Cronenberg, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Sidney Lumet, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Scott Frank, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Diablo Cody, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Kelly Masterson, "Before the Devil Knows You’Re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Nancy Oliver,"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Steven Knight, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
James Vanderbilt, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Christopher Hampton "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
David Benioff, "The Kite Runner" (Paramount Vantage)
Sarah Polley,"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus,"Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)

Most obvious miss: Atonement in the Drama category. Crash missed the IPA nomination two years ago, so this ain't no big thing. But it's interesting.

Great love for The Lookout, a film I enjoyed quite a bit earlier this year -- although how do you spread that love around and nothing for its star, Joseph Gordon-Levitt?

Best Actor Front Runners

Some old names, some new faces, and some possible Oscar winner repeats...

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Three past nominations and one win – the Academy loves him. If he can get a nod for his cartoonish work in Gangs of New York, he's a shoo-in here.

2. James McAvoy, Atonement

Got some nice recognition last year in the title role of The Last King of Scotland. If the female audience sighs when you’re onscreen, you’ve got a shot.

3. Denzel Washington, American Gangster

He picked up his only lead acting Oscar playing a baddie in Training Day – his intensity and onscreen presence is hard to deny.

4. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd

I could see Depp missing here, but he’s always high in the buzz early.

5. George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Clooney should see nominations coming down the road for years to come – he’s a popular boy in Hollywood.

6. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War

Seems like forever since we’ve put Hanks’ name in the ring. Comeback player of the year?

7. Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

If the early buzz is any indication, he could sneak in on a wave of Wild love.

8. Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah or No Country for Old Men

Probably for the latter, even though Elah was a bigger role.

9. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

More likely a Supporting guy this year for Charlie Wilson’s War.

10. Frank Langella, Started Out in the Evening

The “old guy making a movie about being an old guy” nomination. Worked for O'Toole last year, didn't it?

Best Director Front Runners

Thank God Martin Scorcese won last year -- we can finally take the Marty topic off the table and talk about some new directors. We have the makings of an interesting race -- a few up-and-comers, an actor-turned-director, a couple of beloved indie touchstones and two bona fide directorial legends who have never won. Sorta like Marty -- OK, that's the last time his name comes up...

1. Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

Even if Country proves too violent for the Academy (and after last year's win for The Departed, the Academy won't have a leg to stand on), the Coen brothers are well overdue for a win. If the buzz continues, the nomination is a shoo-in.

2. Joe Wright, Atonement

Hollywood loved what he did with the whole Pride and Prejudice thing.

3. Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson’s War

Hasn’t won since The Graduate. Hasn't really been in the running lately.

4. Sean Penn, Into the Wild

The Academy loves actors-turned-directors, especially if their politics match.

5. Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Can you say “overdue?” The 83-year-old director has been nominated for 12 Angry Men, Serpico, Dog Day Afternoon, Network and The Verdict. Baby, that's a career. The Director category isn't known for makeup awards, but if Polanski can win...

6. Ridley Scott, American Gangster

Can you say “overdue” again? I can. I can also say "overrated."

7. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

A well-regarded screenwriter with a good debut. Probably not a top-five guy here.

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Could jump up if the movie does well and the critics drool over it. Like Wes Anderson, he's more fawned over by the critical folks than by the Academy.

9. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Schnabel won the Cannes award for Best Director.

10. Marc Forster, The Kite Runner

Fast becoming a director to be reckoned with. I can see Forster jumping up a few spots after the film's release.