Oscar Analysis: Supporting Actress

Is this baby all sewn up?

1. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Oscar History: First nomination for Hudson

Role: Effie, the jilted powerhouse ex-lead singer of the Dreamettes.

Awards: It may be easier to list what she didn’t win. I’ll mention the biggies here: SAG, Golden Globe, Broadcast Film Critics, Los Angeles

Praise: “It's Hudson who owns Dreamgirls; her delivery of "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going" is worth a standing ovation -- or at least a recount on American Idol -- all by itself.” – Creative Loafing

Memorable Quote: “And…I…am…telling you…I’m not going…”

Pros: Was there a more memorable moment in film this year than that song? And while you think about that, think about this: the reason Dreamgirls had not been made into a movie since its Broadway debut in ’81 is that they couldn’t find an actress who could sing that song.

Cons: The whole “she’s not really an actress, she’s a reality show contestant” thing.

Odds: Backlash be damned – she’s the favorite.

2. Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

Oscar History: Never before.

Role: Olive, the precocious youngster whose sole ambition is to win a beauty pageant.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Abigail Breslin [is] delightful as the little girl who may not fit into the mould, but has set her on winning the Little Miss Sunshine Pageant.” – Urban Cinefile

Memorable Quote: “I'd like to dedicate this to my grandpa, who showed me these moves.”

Pros: Awwwwww. Awwwwwww! Dammit, awwwwww!

Cons: Cute and adorable, yes. Great acting?

Odds: If Sunshine gets on a roll, she could upset – but it would have to be one hell of a roll.

3. Adriana Barraza, Babel

Oscar History: First nomination.

Role: Amelia, the Mexican nanny for two American children who makes a fateful decision to take them across the border for her son’s wedding.

Awards: San Francisco Film Critics

Praise: “…it is Barraza who gives the performance worthy of a Best Supporting Actress nomination.” – Filmsinreview.com

Memorable Quote: “Help! Ayúdenme! Help!”

Pros: Barraza has received a lot of press lately about how she, a survivor of two heart attacks, managed to shoot the treacherous desert-walk scene.

Cons: Not enough buzz – plus, she’s in direct competition with a fellow cast member, which is never a good sign.

Odds: Nope.

4. Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Oscar History: First for Kikuchi.

Role: Chieko, a deaf-mute teenager in Tokyo coming to grips with the suicide of her mother.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Rinko Kikuchi as the deaf Japanese girl [is] stunning, and absolutely brilliant. With little dialogue [she] convey powerful emotions.” – KPBS Movie Reviews

Memorable Quote: Uh…she’s mute.

Pros: Deaf and mute – you know how Oscars love them disabilities (though usually in the lead categories.)

Cons: If this had been a movie just about her, we’d be talking about her upsetting Mirren.

Odds: Great first showing for Kikuchi – excited to hear her talk someday.

5. Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal

Oscar History: One previous win (for The Aviator) and one nomination (for Elizabeth.)

Role: Sheba, the hot-for-student art teacher.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Blanchett convinces utterly as the willowy, self-destructive Sheba. Thesp manages the tricky task of portraying the woman's actions as foolish and reckless while commanding one's sympathy, even understanding.” – Variety

Memorable Quote: “That’s the distance between life as you dream it and life as it is.”

Pros: Blanchett, like Kate Winslet, has become an Academy favorite. Could likely get recognition for her body of work this year (Babel, The Good German, Notes.)

Cons: Would have been more likely if Notes had been a bigger hit, and if she hadn’t just won Supporting Actress two years ago for The Aviator.

Odds: No, but she’ll be back.