Oscar Analysis: Actor

Another category that could surprise, if the stars align for O'Toole...

1. Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland

Oscar History: First nomination for Forest.

Role: Idi Amin.

Awards: All the biggies, including SAG, Golden Globe, Broadcast Film Critics etc.

Praise: “It would all be for naught without Whitaker, who makes Amin fun, funny, vulnerable and poignant while never letting us forget his murderous monomania.” – Los Angeles Daily News

Memorable Quote: “You came to Africa to play the white man. But we aren't a game. We're real. This room is real. And when you die, it will be the first real thing you have done.”

Pros: Like Mirren, Whitaker has been leading this race from day one…

Cons: Unlike Mirren, he does have a couple of longshot contenders behind him.

Odds: It would take a major upset – one that I’m not seeing it right now.

2. Peter O’Toole, Venus

Oscar History: Seven nominations (all in leading) and no wins: Lawrence of Arabia; Becket; The Lion in Winter; Goodbye, Mr. Chips; The Ruling Class; The Stunt Man; My Favorite Year.

Role: Maurice, an aging actor who digs younger chicks. In other words – an aging actor.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Venus belongs to O'Toole. This is, hands down, my favorite performance of the year, largely because I love the way O'Toole (and the filmmakers) refuse to yield to the all-too-pervasive idea that it is 'icky' for old people to even think about sex.” – Salon.com

Memorable Quote: “I'm impotent, of course, but I can still take theoretical interest.”

Pros: Rewarding long-time nominees and/or film veterans on their last go-round is an Oscar tradition, especially with the men: Paul Newman, Al Pacino, Henry Fonda, Jack Palance, John Gielgud, James Coburn, Martin Landau, Sean Connery. O’Toole’s got seven nominations and no wins and he’s old – how can the Academy not reward him?

Cons: A precursor award – any precursor award – would have been nice to see. There doesn’t seem to be any groundswell of support for O’Toole or Venus out there.

Odds: Snubbed for an eighth time? Watch this one very carefully…

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond

Oscar History: Third nomination for DiCaprio, following a Supporting nod for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape? and a lead nomination for The Aviator.

Role: Danny Archer, a South African diamond smuggler.

Awards: None.

Praise: “DiCaprio gives a masterful performance. He’s become a man’s man with a powerful on-screen presence.” – Filmsinreview.com

Memorable Quote: “In America, it’s ‘bling-bling.’ But out here it’s ‘bling-bang.’”

Pros: Leo is fast becoming an Academy favorite. Could have been nominated for either Diamond or Departed.

Cons: So…why wasn’t he nominated for Departed?

Odds: Patience, Leo.

4. Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

Oscar History: First for Gosling.

Role: Dan Dunne – teacher, basketball coach, and junkie.

Awards: Gotham Award.

Praise: “Gosling inhabits Dan with every feature of his face and particle of his body and soul.” – San Francisco Chronicle

Memorable Quote: “One thing doesn't make a man.”

Pros: Arguably the best overall performance of the bunch. The Academy loves the man-battling-demon angle.

Cons: Too small – if Gosling hadn’t been the sole nomination for Half Nelson I think he’d stand a better chance. Played runner up to Whitaker (and Sacha Baron Cohen) in the critics precursors.

Odds: Here’s hoping many more noms for Gosling in the futre.

5. Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness

Oscar History: Nominated for Ali.

Role: Chris Gardner, the homeless father trying to raise his child and get a prestigious high finance job at the same time.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Smith hasn't delivered this kind of earnest, emotionally raw performance since Ali, and his Chris Gardner is every bit as complex.” – Minneapolis Star Tribune

Memorable Quote: “Don't ever let someone tell you, you can't do something. Not even me.”

Pros: Heartwarming as all get-out.

Cons: Like Gosling and O’Toole, being the lone nominee for your movie is rarely a positive (unless you’re a front-runner like Whitaker.)

Odds: Back to Bel-Air.