Oscar Analysis: Supporting Actor

I'd like to think we're going to see some surprises in the acting categories, even though the fearsome foursome (Whitaker, Mirren, Murphy, Hudson) have gobbled up nearly every major precursor award out there. And I think Supporting Actor is where we might see an upset...

1. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

Oscar History: Third nomination for Arkin; his previous two were in the leading actor category (The Russians are Coming! The Russians are Coming in 1966 and The Heart is a Lonely Hunter in 1968)

Role: Grandpa, a heroin-addicted senior citizen rebel with a heart of gold.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Alan Arkin seems to be having a ball as the gruff-but-lovable, drug-using grandfather…” – CINEMATICAL

Memorable Quote: “Listen to me, I got no reason to lie to you, don't make the same mistakes I made when I was young. Fuck a lotta women kid, not just one woman, a lotta women.”

Pros: The last Supporting Actor nominee to wait 38 years between nominations was Jack Palance, and he ended up winning for City Slickers. Arkin is a beloved vet of the film industry.

Cons: Arkin didn’t really win much in the way of precursors – was the role too slight for the Academy?

Odds: An upset in the making.

2. Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Oscar History: Believe it or not, this is Murphy’s first nomination.

Role: James “Thunder” Early, an R&B singer trying to make the transition into white popular music in the Sixties.

Awards: SAG, Golden Globe, New York Film Critics Circle.

Praise: “…at long last rediscovering his larger-than-life movie-star magnetism and lighting up the screen as James "Thunder" Early, a tragic, self-destructive skirt-chaser with a big heart and an even bigger mouth. Part James Brown, part Marvin Gaye and all charisma, Murphy brings the few dramatic moments that stick with you when the songs are over.” – Philadelphia Weekly

Memorable Quote: “Jimmy want a rib! Jimmy want a steak! Jimmy want piece of yo chocolate cake!”

Pros: He’s won the big precursors and is the comeback story of the year; his role in Dreamgirls reminded the public why Murphy was such a star.

Cons: Norbit. Reminds the public why Murphy has never won an Oscar before.

Odds: Still the favorite, but I’ve got a feeling he’s going to lose here…

3. Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Oscar History: Marky Mark’s first nod.

Role: Dignam, the potty-mouthed Boston police sergeant fiercely loyal to his department and to bringing down corruption from within.

Awards: Boston Film Critics.

Praise: “Mark Wahlberg has an especially nice turn as a hard-boiled state trooper who seems capable of looking into any cop's soul.” – Rocky Mountain News

Memorable Quote: “I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.”

Pros: The only actor nominated from the all-star cast of The Departed…

Cons: The only actor nominated from the all-star cast of The Departed.

Odds: “I’m the guy who’s a longshot to win. You must be the other guy.”

4. Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Oscar History: First nomination for Haley.

Role: Ronald McGorvey, a convicted sex offender trying to piece his life back together.

Awards: Chicago, Dallas, Iowa, New York Critics Circle and San Francisco Film Critics.

Praise: “As the deranged and tortured Ronald, Jackie Earle Haley is appallingly creepy, meaning he's perfect. His unstable character lingers in your mind. While you're watching, he seems to be a dirty bomb of perverse violence.” – Arizona Daily Star

Memorable Quote: “I’m not a nice person.”

Pros: Other than the un-nominated Michael Sheen (The Queen) Haley racked up the most precursor wins in this category. A comeback story to rival Murphy’s.

Cons: Little Children didn’t make the splash some thought it should – will Academy members think a nomination is award enough for Haley?

Odds: The dark horse.

5. Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond

Oscar History: Second nomination for Hounsou, his first for 2003’s In America.

Role: Solomon, a fisherman and father enslaved to work the diamond mines of Africa.

Awards: None

Praise: “Djimon Hounsou’s bereaved father, too anguished to play games with these flirtatious highfliers, keeps the movie’s moral sense firmly in place…” – The New Yorker

Memorable Quote: “I will find you if it takes my life.”

Pros: Blood Diamond’s five nominations shows there is considerable respect for this film. Other than Arkin, Hounsou is the only actor with a previous nomination under his belt.

Cons: Could have used a couple of critics wins to keep his name alive.

Odds: Hounsou is going to get his award one of these years…but not this year.