Oscar Analysis: Picture

Before we get into this marsh, let's just put this out there: this is the tightest Best Picture race since 1981, when Chariots of Fire shocked everyone by beating Reds, On Golden Pond, Missing and Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Most prognosticators like to find a similar year and start drawing lines between that year and the present race. "The Queen is this year's Chariots of Fire, Little Miss Sunshine is On Golden Pond" and so on. I ain't gonna do that, 'cause you really can't. The only similarity is that this race, like in 1981, is totally up in the air. The only difference: this year, we know it.

Any of these five can win. Any of them. The race has seemingly narrowed to Babel vs. Departed vs. Sunshine, but don't believe it. The unexpected snub of Dreamgirls means one thing: we have no idea what the Academy as a whole are thinking.

I almost listed these five as 1a, 1b, 1c etc. Then I got a little Dutch courage (thanks, Dewars!) and I'm ready to rock.

1. Little Miss Sunshine

Producers: David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf and Marc Turtletaub.

Oscar History: First time nominations for all three.

Awards: Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild Ensemble, AFI Movie of the Year and NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: A functional dysfunctional New Mexico family travels to California in a beat-up VW bus so that the youngest daughter can compete in a beauty pageant. Hilarity and dramedy ensues.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 91%

Praise: “A road-trip tale with a much stronger point to make than B from A, and not just in the third act. It's the genre's greatest blend of slapstick, sincerity and satire since Albert Brooks' Lost in America.” – State Journal-Register (Illinois)

Jeers: “Assemble a talented troupe, add a dysfunction-by-numbers script, throw in moments of tiny triumphs and stir. Then burp.” – Time Out New York

Pros: The big hit from last year’s Sundance festival proved to be a surprise box office hit and is doing very well on DVD. It’s the only one of the five that can be described as “heartwarming” – and in a year with no clear front-runner, the Academy may respond in kind.

Cons: Comedies have done historically bad in the Best Picture race – you have to go back to Annie Hall to find a pure comedy winner. The Director snub didn’t help. Will it have the support of the tech members of the Academy?

Odds: The slim – very slim – extremely slim – favorite.

2. The Departed

Producer: Graham King

Oscar History: King was previously nominated for The Aviator.

Awards: Broadcast Film Critics Association; Golden Satellite; Boston, Chicago, Florida, Las Vegas and Southeastern Florida Film Critics; NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: Two cops – a corrupt officer acting as a mole for a crime boss, and a loyal cadet working undercover for the same crime boss – work parallel to ferret each other out. Extreme violence ensues.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 93%

Praise: “For all its bloodletting, The Departed is an intoxicating film. It's a film that'll have your hands over your face with one eye peeking: The violence sickens, but the movie seduces.” – Houston Chronicle

Jeers: “Redolent of four-letter words, Scorsese's flatulent Boston massacre doesn't amount to a hill of beans ... It's easily his worst film since Cape Fear. How bad is GoodFellas Does Boston? So bad that even Nicholson is a deadly bore.” – Boulder Weekly

Pros: Big-named cast, big-time director, big box office, bit critical respect – looks like a winner to me…

Cons: The Academy usually doesn’t reward violent movies unless the violence takes place in an historical context (Gladiator, Braveheart, The Godfather) or as some part of a character’s redemption (Unforgiven; Silence of the Lambs.) It’s also rare that a remake wins Best Picture (the last one to do so I believe was Ben-Hur.)

Odds: Neck-and-bloody-neck with Sunshine and…

3. Babel

   

Producers: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Jon Kilik and Steve Golin

Oscar History: Iñárritu is nominated in the Director category. Kilik and Golin are first-timers.

Awards: Golden Globe (Drama); AFI and NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: In four countries, three separate stories unfold – the shooting of an American citizen in Morocco, a Mexican nanny in trouble while crossing the US border, and a deaf-mute Japanese girl in Tokyo. Communication and healing ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 68%

Praise: “Its complex (yet not mystifying) storytelling, forceful character development, and superb cinematography make this a candidate for one of 2006's best offerings.” – Reelviews

Jeers: “If Babel were a football game, I'd flag it 15 yards for piling on. Others may want to give it an Oscar. To each his own.” -- Newsweek

Pros: A serious movie with international appeal. It’s got the most nominations of all the BP movies – that usually corresponds with winning BP.

Cons: As you can see by the Rotten Tomatoes ranking, people were mixed on this movie. Yes, Crash had a similar ranking last year, but it had the benefit of going up against a polarizing movie in Brokeback Mountain; Babel doesn’t have that.

Odds: Some are still predicting this movie to win…and it still can.

4. Letters from Iwo Jima

Producers: Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz

Oscar History: Eastwood has had three movies nominated for Best Picture (Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby) and won two. Lorenz was also a producer on Mystic River. Spielberg has had five movies he’s produced nominated for BP (ET, The Color Purple; Schindler’s List; Saving Private Ryan, Munich) and won once.

Awards: National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics winner.

Synopsis: A small segment of the Japanese army readies for an overwhelming attack by the US on the island of Iwo Jima. Reminiscing and self-sacrifice ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 91%

Praise: “This is a mournful, difficult film, but also a masterful one. Eastwood finds pockets of kindness and humanity where you'd least expect them, and once again cements his hard-earned reputation as the restless inquisitor of our national mythologies.” – Philadelphia Weekly

Jeers: “The project lacks the variety of sensuous pleasures that a great movie has to provide.” – New Yorker

Pros: Letters is thought of as the movie that knocked Dreamgirls out of BP contention, which means that it has staunch support in the Academy. We know they love Eastwood – if he can win for a boxing movie, it should stand to reason that he can win for a WWII film.

Cons: Entered late in the race and never really gained much traction. Zero Guild nominations – that ain’t good. Eastwood just won BP for Million Dollar Baby two years ago – too soon for another?

Odds: A dark horse – one that I may end up predicting to win (if I feel brave.)

5. The Queen

Producers: Andy Harries, Christine Langan and Tracey Seaward

Oscar History: All are first time nominees.

Awards: New York Film Critics Online; BAFTA, Toronto.

Synopsis: Upon the tragic death of Princess Diana in 1997, Queen Elizabeth’s stoic reaction sparks outrage in the United Kingdom, leaving new Prime Minister Tony Blair to convince her to change with the times. Bowing and curtseying ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 98% (the best of all five films)

Praise: “So magnificent in so many ways that, for the first time, it seems to raise the docudrama to high art.” – Seattle PI

Jeers: “"...slow and inaccurate...nothing I'd want to sit through if I knew what was in store for me, unless I just wanted to see a good impersonation of Queen Elizabeth and a bad impersonation of the eloquent Tony Blair." – tonymedley.com

Pros: Hard to find many who hate this film…

Cons: …but also hard to find many who love it. Reviews have been mostly glowing about Mirren’s work and ho-hum about the script and directing.

Odds: Perhaps the only one you can truly count out of the race…I think.

Next up: final predictions.