Best Picture front-runners

This is going to be an interesting race -- the installed front-runner features a second-time director and some awfully young stars; it's closest competitor is drenched in blood and tension, and behind those two movies are films with star power and uncertainty. In other words, this baby be wide open.

These lists, by the way, are built purely on online buzz, hearsay, early reviews and pure guesswork. Don't take 'em to the bank just yet.

1. Atonement (Focus Features)

Director: Joe Wright

Cast: Kiera Knightley, James McAvoy, Vanessa Redgrave, Romola Garai, Saorise Ronan

Release Date: December 7

You have to go back to Shakespeare in Love to find a true costume romance winning Best Picture – and the last three winners (The Departed, Crash, Million Dollar Baby) were decidedly modern. My guess is that the Academy is hungry for another, and Atonement should more than fit the bill. Atonement has a certain English Patient-type vibe – devastatingly beautiful leads, tragic love, war and separation. Wright and Knightley worked together in the much-lauded Pride and Prejudice, and McAvoy is fresh off his title role in The Last King of Scotland. If the box office is good (and judging by the success of Ian McEwan’s novel, it should be) Atonement should be the early front-runner.

2. No Country for Old Men (Miramax)

Directors: Ethan and Joel Coen

Cast: Josh Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, Kelly McDonald, Woody Harrelson

Release Date: in theaters now

After two attempts at Hollywood-izing their style – one mediocre (Intolerable Cruelty) and one awful (The Ladykillers) – the Coen Brothers return to the themes of Blood Simple and Fargo: crime, small towns, decent folks in over their heads, and an incomprehensible menace. Last year’s win for The Departed proved that the Academy can stand a little blood and violence – which is good, ‘cause No Country has that in spades. Bardem and Jones are already getting whispers of acting nods (in the case of Bardem, more like a scream) and the Coen brothers should get directing and writing consideration. This has got the early buzz – although it seems like one of those films that’ll get all the praise and very little Oscar hardware.

3. Juno (Fox Searchlight)

Director: Jason Reitman

Cast: Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, JK Simmons

Release Date: December 5

The audience favorite at Toronto, Juno looks like the Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation candidate of 2007 – a quirky independent-ish movie about a teenager who gets knocked up by her best friend and decides to have the baby and give it up for adoption. Buzz is high – first-time screenwriter Diablo Cody is the talk of the town, Reitman appears to have built momentum after his first feature, Thank You for Smoking, and the cast is a who’s who of who’s cool. This one could catch fire.

4. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage/Focus Features)

Director: Sean Penn

Cast: Emile Hirsch, Catherine Keener, Hal Holbrook, Vince Vaughn, Jena Malone

Release Date: September 21 – I believe it’s still in theaters

This one seems to be ranking on a lot of pre-precursor lists, which surprised me. I haven’t seen it, and I certainly haven’t heard a ton of buzz on it, but folks close to the industry are giving it mentions, so we’ll see. The most talk I’ve heard is for Sean Penn’s directing and for Hal Holbrook, an actor who might fit the “due” slot in Supporting Actor.

5. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal)

Director: Mike Nichols

Cast: Tom Hanks, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Julia Roberts, Ned Beatty, Amy Adams

Release Date: December 25

With most “topical” war movies falling by the way side (Rendition; The Kingdom; Lions for Lambs) this one looks like it could worm its way into the top five. A true story of a Congressman assisting Afghanistan in a covert war against the Soviet Union in the early 80s, Charlie Wilson’s War gets to be the Iraq War movie without having to take place in the present day. Hanks, Hoffman and Roberts have all won lead acting Oscars, and Nichols is a well-respected name. No one has seen the movie yet, but the Oscar pedigree can’t be ignored.

6. American Gangster (Universal)

Director: Ridley Scott

Cast: Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Ruby Dee, Ted Levine, Josh Brolin

Release Date: November 2, 2007

Lots to love here – big name director who has never won. Dueling Oscar-winning stars (although they don’t appear together until the end of the film.) Legendary actress Ruby Dee in a role destined for Supporting Actress. Big subject matter. Good box office. And yeah, I’m not seeing it ending up in the top five. But if one of the above films falters or under-performs, it could sneak in as this year’s Departed.

7. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.)

Director: Tony Gilroy

Cast: George Clooney, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, Sydney Pollack, Michael O’Keefe

Release Date: October 12

Talky brainy thrillers don’t tend to win over the Academy. But not all talky brainy thrillers star recent Oscar winner and Hollywood god Clooney, Academy favorite Wilkinson and criminally overdue Swinton. It’s a weak year for these kinds of movies – I can see the Academy making room for Clayton, especially if the three actors mentioned above get nods.

8. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage/Dreamworks)

Director: Marc Forster

Cast: Khalid Abdalla, Ali Dinesh, Abdul Salam Yusoufzai, Elham Ehsas

Release Date: December 14

Forster’s track record has been very good -- Monster’s Ball garnered an Oscar for Halle Berry, Finding Neverland picked up a surprising amount of Academy love, and Stranger Than Fiction was highly-regarded as well. Kite Runner – based on the beloved novel of the same name – might be his best shot so far. Serious, moving, relevant – but not without controversy.

9. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage)

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

Cast: Daniel Day-Lewis, Paul Dano, Kevin J. O’Connor, Ciaran Hinds, Dillon Freasier

Release Date: December 26

The long-awaited follow-up to 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love finds Paul Thomas Anderson in unfamiliar territory – a loose adaptation of an Upton Sinclair novel about oil, greed and evangelism at the turn of the century. Day-Lewis is an Academy darling, and I’ve heard Dano – nearly mute in Little Miss Sunshine – impresses the hell out of everyone as a child preacher with supposed healing powers. Other than No Country, this might be the most anticipated film of the year for movie snobs – which means it has a good chance of flopping with the Academy.

10. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks)

Director: Tim Burton

Cast: Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, Sasha Baron Cohen, Timothy Spall

Release Date: December 21

After the last few musical-to-film flops (Phantom, Rent, Producers) one has to approach Sweeney Todd with a skeptical eye in terms of Oscar potential. There’s probably enough Golden Globe love here to keep the movie in consideration – the rest will depend on box office. Look for Burton as a dark horse Director candidate – is it really possible he’s never even been nominated?