The Hangover

And just like...it's over.

The Winners

Martin Scorcese -- not only for Director, but The Departed bucked some major trends (no Golden Globe, no PGA, no SAG Ensemble) to win Best Picture. Can't be mad, as the Academy picked a very good movie for its top award.

An Inconvenient Truth -- Two awards, the most ever for a documentary. Bonus points for Al Gore providing one of the best jokes of the night: his faux Presidential announcement being interrupted by the orchestra...

Alan Arkin -- The one true upset of the evening -- as with Scorcese, I'm glad to see him finally own an Oscar.


The Not-Winners

Dreamgirls and Babel -- 15 nominations between the two of them and only three Oscars (Score for Babel; Supporting Actress and Sound Mixing for Dreamgirls.)

The Orchestra -- Al Gore's joke aside, this whole musical bum-rush has got to stop. I don't care if the show is approaching its fourth hour -- fans of the Oscars are going to watch anyway. Let the winners talk, cry, laugh, stumble and be human.

That's enough of that. Next, we'll take a look ahead at possible nominees for this upcoming film season...

Scramble! Scramble!

Doping out your ballot for your big Oscar party on Sunday night and still have a few categories you're not sure about? A few thoughts on predicting the winners. (These are all generalizations and don't always work out. Please predict responsibly.)

1. Most Nominations = Most Wins

The film with the most nominations usually gets the most awards. That’s even true this year, as Dreamgirls – despite not picking up a nod in Picture or Director – has the best chance to land the most hardware by the end of the night.

2. Six is a Magic Number

Six nominations usually equals at least one award. This year's six-and-over crowd: Dreamgirls, Babel, Pan’s Labyrinth, and The Queen. Make sure you’ve got those four movies listed somewhere on your ballot. Hmmmm, I wonder what award The Queen is going to win…

3. Lead Roles get Supporting Awards

This happens every year: true supporting performances get overshadowed by "supporting" performances that are actually lead (or co-lead) roles. The respective studios push these performances in the supporting category to increase their actor's chance of winning. Jennifer Hudson and Abigail Breslin certainly qualify in Supporting Actress; the Supporting Actors this year are true supporters, so you’ll have to figure that one out for yourself.

4. BP Nominees Get an Award

Usually. If you’re stuck on who to pick in Sound Mixing, you might want to throw Letters from Iwo Jima in there based on this (especially if you don’t think it’ll win Best Picture. Funny how that movie’s chances to win are either the biggest prize of the evening or an obscure Tech award. Did I mention this was a weird year?)

5. Know Your Guilds

When it comes to techs, the BP front-runner usually gets the lionshare. This year we don’t have a BP front-runner, so you should know who won the respective Guilds. They don't always go hand-in-hand, but if you're stumped, it's a good guess. Check out my post entitled “Guild Round Up.”

6. Documentary Short, Short Film Animated, Short Film Live

Guesses all. Have you seen them? Probably not. Roll the dice.

And…I’m spent. Have fun Sunday and we'll recap Monday morning...

Final Predictions

The wild-and-wooly Oscar ride is just about over, and it’s time to make the final predictions. Oy.

Upsets and surprises have become the norm at the Oscars – which is amazing considering how much more time and energy Oscar prognosticators spend nowadays crunching numbers, assessing trends and following buzz. Two years ago was supposedly Scorcese’s year – until Million Dollar Baby came out of nowhere and won the hearts of the Academy. Last year, Brokeback Mountain won every precursor down the pike, but it came down to voter apprehension, allowing Crash to sneak past and win. Keep your facts and formulas – the human factor is the key to who wins.

And there’s the rub: we don’t know how the 5900-odd members of the AMPAS are feeling right now. Contentious? Happy? Hungry? Full of love? Full of beans? We’ll only know after the fact. In the meantime, we guess.

I’m going to go out on several limbs this year – mainly because of the factor of the unknown. Besides, what’s life without adventure?

Picture: Letters from Iwo Jima

Let’s break it down this way:

If you are inclined to go with history, pick Babel -- the most nominations of all the BP films, including Director and Editing, two acting nods, serious subject matter etc.

If you think the most successful movie wins, go with The Departed -- big box office, heady stars, and Scorcese’s DGA win ain’t too shabby either…

If you think the vote is all about the “awwwwww” factor, pick Little Miss Sunshine. The only heartwarmer of the bunch…

So, why Letters?

Because I think this is an odd year. Because I think the bulk of the Academy didn’t see it until after the nominations came out – and it still got enough love to get nominated. Because the flaws in the other movies are the type of flaws that usually pre-empt a win (too confusing, too cute, too stiff, too violent.) Because the Academy might jump at the chance of seeing both Eastwood and Steven Spielberg (one of Letters’ producers) on stage at the same time. Most of all - because I believe after they see Letters they won’t have a choice.

Director: Martin Scorcese, The Departed

The film world finally showed Scorcese the love this year – he wins hands down.

Actor: Peter O’Toole, Venus

It’s an interesting category – four out of the five nominees are the only nominations for their respective film (something that happens more often in Actress.) It’s been all Whitaker in the precursors, but I think the Academy will take the opportunity to reward a veteran actor that’s never won – they usually do.

Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen

‘Nuff said.

Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

This is even tougher for me than Actor. Murphy, like Whitaker, has been the front-runner forever – but I’ve got this Jack Palance-type feeling about Arkin.

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

She weathered the backlash like a pro. She may not deserve it, but she’s definitely earned it.

Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine

Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed

Best Picture consolation prizes (or, if you’re so inclined, a portent of things to come.)

Foreign Language: Pan’s Labyrinth

I’ve heard a surge for the German black comedy The Lives of Others – if you want to pick an upset here, go with that. For me, Pan’s Labyrinth could take home the most Oscars of the night, so I don’t think I’ll pick against it here.

Animated Feature: Cars

The Annie winner usually wins the Oscar.

And the rest…

Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth

Cinematography: Children of Men

Costume Design: Dreamgirls

Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

Documentary Short Subject: Two Hands

Editing: Babel

Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth

Score: Philip Glass, Notes on a Scandal

Song: “I Need to Wake Up” from An Inconvenient Truth

Animated Short: The Little Matchgirl

Live Action Short: West Bank Story

Sound Editing: Letters from Iwo Jima

Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls

Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

What the experts are saying...

Perusing the prognosticators...

Actor: Most pundits are sticking with Whitaker, except for Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil, who has got O'Toole winning.

Actress: Try finding someone -- anyone -- to predict someone other than Mirren. Good luck with that.

Supporting Actor: Dead heat -- I'm finding equal support for Arkin and Murphy. O'Neil, Jeffrey Wells, Claudia Puig (USA Today) and Steve Pond of The Envelope have Arkin winning, while Peter Travers, Richard Roeper, Gene Seymour (Newsday) and Sam Rubin (KTLA) are sticking with Murphy.

Supporting Actress: Jefferey Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere likes Abigail Breslin -- the rest of the fleet are on the Hudson train.

Picture: As you might expect, this one is still a mess: Roeper, Wells and Peter Hammond of Hollywoodwiretap have moved to Babel; O'Neil, Pond and Rubin got The Departed and Travers, Puig and Seymour like Little Miss Sunshine. And then there's brave Kris Tapley of In Contention, who is still favoring Letters from Iwo Jima. You're a better man than I, Gunga Din.

Oscar Analysis: Picture

Before we get into this marsh, let's just put this out there: this is the tightest Best Picture race since 1981, when Chariots of Fire shocked everyone by beating Reds, On Golden Pond, Missing and Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Most prognosticators like to find a similar year and start drawing lines between that year and the present race. "The Queen is this year's Chariots of Fire, Little Miss Sunshine is On Golden Pond" and so on. I ain't gonna do that, 'cause you really can't. The only similarity is that this race, like in 1981, is totally up in the air. The only difference: this year, we know it.

Any of these five can win. Any of them. The race has seemingly narrowed to Babel vs. Departed vs. Sunshine, but don't believe it. The unexpected snub of Dreamgirls means one thing: we have no idea what the Academy as a whole are thinking.

I almost listed these five as 1a, 1b, 1c etc. Then I got a little Dutch courage (thanks, Dewars!) and I'm ready to rock.

1. Little Miss Sunshine

Producers: David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf and Marc Turtletaub.

Oscar History: First time nominations for all three.

Awards: Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild Ensemble, AFI Movie of the Year and NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: A functional dysfunctional New Mexico family travels to California in a beat-up VW bus so that the youngest daughter can compete in a beauty pageant. Hilarity and dramedy ensues.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 91%

Praise: “A road-trip tale with a much stronger point to make than B from A, and not just in the third act. It's the genre's greatest blend of slapstick, sincerity and satire since Albert Brooks' Lost in America.” – State Journal-Register (Illinois)

Jeers: “Assemble a talented troupe, add a dysfunction-by-numbers script, throw in moments of tiny triumphs and stir. Then burp.” – Time Out New York

Pros: The big hit from last year’s Sundance festival proved to be a surprise box office hit and is doing very well on DVD. It’s the only one of the five that can be described as “heartwarming” – and in a year with no clear front-runner, the Academy may respond in kind.

Cons: Comedies have done historically bad in the Best Picture race – you have to go back to Annie Hall to find a pure comedy winner. The Director snub didn’t help. Will it have the support of the tech members of the Academy?

Odds: The slim – very slim – extremely slim – favorite.

2. The Departed

Producer: Graham King

Oscar History: King was previously nominated for The Aviator.

Awards: Broadcast Film Critics Association; Golden Satellite; Boston, Chicago, Florida, Las Vegas and Southeastern Florida Film Critics; NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: Two cops – a corrupt officer acting as a mole for a crime boss, and a loyal cadet working undercover for the same crime boss – work parallel to ferret each other out. Extreme violence ensues.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 93%

Praise: “For all its bloodletting, The Departed is an intoxicating film. It's a film that'll have your hands over your face with one eye peeking: The violence sickens, but the movie seduces.” – Houston Chronicle

Jeers: “Redolent of four-letter words, Scorsese's flatulent Boston massacre doesn't amount to a hill of beans ... It's easily his worst film since Cape Fear. How bad is GoodFellas Does Boston? So bad that even Nicholson is a deadly bore.” – Boulder Weekly

Pros: Big-named cast, big-time director, big box office, bit critical respect – looks like a winner to me…

Cons: The Academy usually doesn’t reward violent movies unless the violence takes place in an historical context (Gladiator, Braveheart, The Godfather) or as some part of a character’s redemption (Unforgiven; Silence of the Lambs.) It’s also rare that a remake wins Best Picture (the last one to do so I believe was Ben-Hur.)

Odds: Neck-and-bloody-neck with Sunshine and…

3. Babel

   

Producers: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Jon Kilik and Steve Golin

Oscar History: Iñárritu is nominated in the Director category. Kilik and Golin are first-timers.

Awards: Golden Globe (Drama); AFI and NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: In four countries, three separate stories unfold – the shooting of an American citizen in Morocco, a Mexican nanny in trouble while crossing the US border, and a deaf-mute Japanese girl in Tokyo. Communication and healing ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 68%

Praise: “Its complex (yet not mystifying) storytelling, forceful character development, and superb cinematography make this a candidate for one of 2006's best offerings.” – Reelviews

Jeers: “If Babel were a football game, I'd flag it 15 yards for piling on. Others may want to give it an Oscar. To each his own.” -- Newsweek

Pros: A serious movie with international appeal. It’s got the most nominations of all the BP movies – that usually corresponds with winning BP.

Cons: As you can see by the Rotten Tomatoes ranking, people were mixed on this movie. Yes, Crash had a similar ranking last year, but it had the benefit of going up against a polarizing movie in Brokeback Mountain; Babel doesn’t have that.

Odds: Some are still predicting this movie to win…and it still can.

4. Letters from Iwo Jima

Producers: Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz

Oscar History: Eastwood has had three movies nominated for Best Picture (Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby) and won two. Lorenz was also a producer on Mystic River. Spielberg has had five movies he’s produced nominated for BP (ET, The Color Purple; Schindler’s List; Saving Private Ryan, Munich) and won once.

Awards: National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics winner.

Synopsis: A small segment of the Japanese army readies for an overwhelming attack by the US on the island of Iwo Jima. Reminiscing and self-sacrifice ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 91%

Praise: “This is a mournful, difficult film, but also a masterful one. Eastwood finds pockets of kindness and humanity where you'd least expect them, and once again cements his hard-earned reputation as the restless inquisitor of our national mythologies.” – Philadelphia Weekly

Jeers: “The project lacks the variety of sensuous pleasures that a great movie has to provide.” – New Yorker

Pros: Letters is thought of as the movie that knocked Dreamgirls out of BP contention, which means that it has staunch support in the Academy. We know they love Eastwood – if he can win for a boxing movie, it should stand to reason that he can win for a WWII film.

Cons: Entered late in the race and never really gained much traction. Zero Guild nominations – that ain’t good. Eastwood just won BP for Million Dollar Baby two years ago – too soon for another?

Odds: A dark horse – one that I may end up predicting to win (if I feel brave.)

5. The Queen

Producers: Andy Harries, Christine Langan and Tracey Seaward

Oscar History: All are first time nominees.

Awards: New York Film Critics Online; BAFTA, Toronto.

Synopsis: Upon the tragic death of Princess Diana in 1997, Queen Elizabeth’s stoic reaction sparks outrage in the United Kingdom, leaving new Prime Minister Tony Blair to convince her to change with the times. Bowing and curtseying ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 98% (the best of all five films)

Praise: “So magnificent in so many ways that, for the first time, it seems to raise the docudrama to high art.” – Seattle PI

Jeers: “"...slow and inaccurate...nothing I'd want to sit through if I knew what was in store for me, unless I just wanted to see a good impersonation of Queen Elizabeth and a bad impersonation of the eloquent Tony Blair." – tonymedley.com

Pros: Hard to find many who hate this film…

Cons: …but also hard to find many who love it. Reviews have been mostly glowing about Mirren’s work and ho-hum about the script and directing.

Odds: Perhaps the only one you can truly count out of the race…I think.

Next up: final predictions.

Oscar Analysis: Director

For the record -- if Scorcese gets beaten by Eastwood for a second time, I'm going to laugh my ass off. Not 'cause I hate Scorcese, but just to listen to the fanboys whine and moan.

1. Martin Scorcese, The Departed

Oscar History: Hey, have you heard that Scorcese has never won an Oscar? He’s been nominated seven times – five for directing (Raging Bull; The Last Temptation of Christ; Goodfellas; Gangs of New York; The Aviator) and twice for writing (The Age of Innocence; Goodfellas.)

Awards: Plenty – the biggies include the Directors Guild, the Golden Globe and the National Board of Review.

Praise: “…the film shows the legendary director dropping the bids for industry respectability that have preoccupied him over the past decade and doing what he does best.” – Boston Globe

Pros: It’s been a year of firsts for Marty – first Golden Globe win, first Directors Guild win…the Oscar should follow suit, right?

Cons: The man’s been overdue more times than a library book – remember when he was a shoo-in for The Aviator?

Odds: A semi-cautious lock.

2. Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima

Oscar History: Eastwood’s got two Oscars for directing (Unforgiven; Million Dollar Baby) one nomination for directing (Mystic River) and two nominations for acting (Unforgiven; Million Dollar Baby.)

Awards: Surprisingly none.

Praise: “One may argue with Eastwood's filmmaking strategies but the general just gravitates toward blazing new movie trails; it's in his genetic makeup as much as in his ammo belt.” – Cinema Signals

Pros: Eastwood is Eastwood – you know the Academy loves him. Directing two movies on the same subject in the same year (at age seventy-freakin’-six!) is no small feat, and the Academy loves rewarding feats (like Peter Jackson’s win for the LOTR trilogy, or Steven Soderbergh’s directing Traffic and Erin Brockovich in the same year.)

Cons: He just won two years ago, beating Scorcese and incurring the wrath of filmgeeks everywhere. Plus, Letters didn’t turn into the big film some thought it would.

Odds: He’s the only one with a shot to topple Marty, but I’m not feeling it.

3. Paul Greengrass, United 93

Oscar History: First nomination for Greengrass

Awards: British Academy Award winner; Los Angeles, London, San Francisco, Kansas City and the National Society of Film Critics winner.

Praise: “Paul Greengrass has taken the all-too-familiar events of 9/11 and has created an emotionally charged human drama without stooping to melodramatics or sensationalizing.” – Journal and Courier

Pros: The Los Angeles and BAFTA wins shouldn’t be taken lightly – he’s nominated because he’s got some avid supporters…

Cons: …but does he have enough to overcome the big two in front of him? And did enough Academy voters see United 93 to vote for it?

Odds: He should win, but he’s not going to.

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Babel

Oscar History: First nomination for Iñárritu.

Awards: Cannes

Praise: “Iñárritu is an exceptionally gifted director who makes each individual scene in Babel work beautifully.” – KPBS.org

Pros: Babel has still got a shot at Best Picture, which keeps Iñárritu safely in play.

Cons: Even if Babel wins BP, you got to think either Scorcese or Eastwood would top Iñárritu here.

Odds: He’ll be back.

5. Stephen Frears, The Queen

Oscar History: Previously nominated in 1990 for The Grifters.

Awards: Toronto Film Critics.

Praise: “Frears' masterstroke is making it a thoroughly sympathetic portrait of Elizabeth, Charles and the entire concept of the monarchy.” – Las Vegas Weekly

Pros: 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes – there’s a lot of love (and little hate) for this movie…

Cons: …but is that love for Frears or Mirren? I’m thinking Mirren.

Odds: Not this year.

Oscar Analysis: Actor

Another category that could surprise, if the stars align for O'Toole...

1. Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland

Oscar History: First nomination for Forest.

Role: Idi Amin.

Awards: All the biggies, including SAG, Golden Globe, Broadcast Film Critics etc.

Praise: “It would all be for naught without Whitaker, who makes Amin fun, funny, vulnerable and poignant while never letting us forget his murderous monomania.” – Los Angeles Daily News

Memorable Quote: “You came to Africa to play the white man. But we aren't a game. We're real. This room is real. And when you die, it will be the first real thing you have done.”

Pros: Like Mirren, Whitaker has been leading this race from day one…

Cons: Unlike Mirren, he does have a couple of longshot contenders behind him.

Odds: It would take a major upset – one that I’m not seeing it right now.

2. Peter O’Toole, Venus

Oscar History: Seven nominations (all in leading) and no wins: Lawrence of Arabia; Becket; The Lion in Winter; Goodbye, Mr. Chips; The Ruling Class; The Stunt Man; My Favorite Year.

Role: Maurice, an aging actor who digs younger chicks. In other words – an aging actor.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Venus belongs to O'Toole. This is, hands down, my favorite performance of the year, largely because I love the way O'Toole (and the filmmakers) refuse to yield to the all-too-pervasive idea that it is 'icky' for old people to even think about sex.” – Salon.com

Memorable Quote: “I'm impotent, of course, but I can still take theoretical interest.”

Pros: Rewarding long-time nominees and/or film veterans on their last go-round is an Oscar tradition, especially with the men: Paul Newman, Al Pacino, Henry Fonda, Jack Palance, John Gielgud, James Coburn, Martin Landau, Sean Connery. O’Toole’s got seven nominations and no wins and he’s old – how can the Academy not reward him?

Cons: A precursor award – any precursor award – would have been nice to see. There doesn’t seem to be any groundswell of support for O’Toole or Venus out there.

Odds: Snubbed for an eighth time? Watch this one very carefully…

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond

Oscar History: Third nomination for DiCaprio, following a Supporting nod for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape? and a lead nomination for The Aviator.

Role: Danny Archer, a South African diamond smuggler.

Awards: None.

Praise: “DiCaprio gives a masterful performance. He’s become a man’s man with a powerful on-screen presence.” – Filmsinreview.com

Memorable Quote: “In America, it’s ‘bling-bling.’ But out here it’s ‘bling-bang.’”

Pros: Leo is fast becoming an Academy favorite. Could have been nominated for either Diamond or Departed.

Cons: So…why wasn’t he nominated for Departed?

Odds: Patience, Leo.

4. Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

Oscar History: First for Gosling.

Role: Dan Dunne – teacher, basketball coach, and junkie.

Awards: Gotham Award.

Praise: “Gosling inhabits Dan with every feature of his face and particle of his body and soul.” – San Francisco Chronicle

Memorable Quote: “One thing doesn't make a man.”

Pros: Arguably the best overall performance of the bunch. The Academy loves the man-battling-demon angle.

Cons: Too small – if Gosling hadn’t been the sole nomination for Half Nelson I think he’d stand a better chance. Played runner up to Whitaker (and Sacha Baron Cohen) in the critics precursors.

Odds: Here’s hoping many more noms for Gosling in the futre.

5. Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness

Oscar History: Nominated for Ali.

Role: Chris Gardner, the homeless father trying to raise his child and get a prestigious high finance job at the same time.

Awards: None.

Praise: “Smith hasn't delivered this kind of earnest, emotionally raw performance since Ali, and his Chris Gardner is every bit as complex.” – Minneapolis Star Tribune

Memorable Quote: “Don't ever let someone tell you, you can't do something. Not even me.”

Pros: Heartwarming as all get-out.

Cons: Like Gosling and O’Toole, being the lone nominee for your movie is rarely a positive (unless you’re a front-runner like Whitaker.)

Odds: Back to Bel-Air.