Oscar-eligible songs

The AMPAS released the not-so-short list of 59 eligible songs for the Best Song category. Click here for the list.


Enchanted, Hairspray and Walk Hard are probably the early favorites for nominations, as is the Eddie Vedder song from Into the Wild. And if one of the songs from Once doesn't get nominated, I'm gonna raise a fuss. It ain't gonna be pretty.

Precursor Mania!

Holy shit. I had no idea end-of-the-year critics awards were coming down the pike so fast. Damn. I guess it really is December.

I'm working on my Golden Globe predictions (they announce tomorrow morning -- holy shit!) but here's a quick recap (click on the links to see the entire list of nominees):

Broadcast Film Critics Awards (Critics' Choice) -- a major Oscar barometer. No big surprises here -- their top ten films:
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Los Angeles Film Critics -- they went cuckoo for There Will Be Blood, giving it Best Picture, Director for Paul Thomas Anderson, Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis and runner-up prizes for Cinematography, Screenplay and Score.


New York Film Critics Circle -- meanwhile, on the other coast, the NY film elite put their crown on No Country for Old Men, giving love to the Coen brothers for directing and screenplay and Supporting Actor for Javier Bardem

New York Film Critics Online -- kind of like the Critics Circle, except they're...well...online. They gave their top prize to There Will Be Blood and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

San Francisco -- top prizes went to The Assassination of Jesse James, the Coen brothers for directing, George Clooney and Julie Christie for lead, Amy Ryan and Casey Affleck for supporting.

Washington DC -- No Country for Old Men, the Coens, Clooney, Christie, Bardem and Ryan

Boston -- No Country, Julian Schnabel (for Diving Bell), Frank Langella and Marion Cottiliard for lead, Bardem and Ryan.


It's been an early No Country/There Will Be Blood tug-o-war. Based on what I've seen (No Country -- brilliant) and what I've heard (Blood -- early reviews indicate greatness) they seem to me to be two of the oddest early front runners in recent Oscar history. Violent, dark films by independent directors -- not the usual Academy fare. Seems there is probability that a film more mainstream, less dark might be able to gain some momentum -- Juno? Atonement? Into the Wild (which led the BFCAs with seven nominations)?

As for the acting races, the Clooney/Day-Lewis matchup is going to be a good one -- two highly respected movie stars in very different roles. The Christie/Cottiliard race is one to watch as well -- although you'll be hard pressed to find folks who have actually seen both of their movies. In supporting, Amy Ryan has been the big surprise -- the front-runner was thought to be Blanchett in I'm Not There. Perhaps since Blanchett just won two years ago for another celebrity impersonation (Kate Hepburn) that critics are looking the other way. Ryan's a worthy alternative. Meanwhile, Bardem looks all but unstoppable for Supporting Actor, with Hal Holbrook getting the early old-guy-never-won vote and Casey Affleck getting the young-guy-better-than-Ben love.

Next up: Golden Globe predix.

NBR Winners -- I'm a freakin' genius

I rarely get any predicts right this early in the season, so pardon me if I shine for a moment...

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men


'Nuff said. Stick with the kid!

The rest of the NBR Top Ten:

The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford

Atonement

The Bourne Ultimatum

The Bucket List

Into The Wild

Juno

The Kite Runner

Lars And The Real Girl

Michael Clayton

Sweeney Todd

The rest of the winners:

Director: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd

Actor: George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Actress: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Foreign Film: The Diving Bell And The Butterfly

Documentary: Body of War

Animated Feature: Ratatouille

Ensemble Cast: No Country for Old Men

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, Juno

Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone

Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, Juno and Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men

National Board of Review predictions

The National Board of Review announces their winners on Wednesday -- and while this 100+ group of East Coast film academics has a reputation for being easily influenced by studios, the fact is that their winners usually end up in the final Oscar race. Especially in regards to Best Picture -- only two NBR Best Film winners since 1987 (Quills and Gods and Monsters) didn't also receive an Best Picture Oscar nomination. Take tomorrow's NBR Best Film and stick it your top five Oscar Best Picture predictions -- and keep it there.

They've been on a nostalgia trip as of late -- since 2000, the only movie taking place in the present day to win was Mystic River. Don't know if it's a trend, but it's something to think about.

My Predictions:

Best Film: No Country for Old Men

Top Ten Films:

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Once
The Savages

Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and The Savages

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose

Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There

Best Director: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Directorial Debut: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Best Ensemble: Juno

Breakthrough Male: Michael Cera, Juno and Superbad

Breakthrough Female: Ellen Page, Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno

Best Documentary: No End in Sight

Best Animated: Persepolis

Satellite Nominees

The first nominations of the year are out, courtesy of the International Press Academy. (I know: who?) The Satellite Awards (formerly known as the "Golden" Satellites, until a certain other foreign press organization claimed the word for their "globes) are all over the place -- they split up almost every main category between drama and musical/comedy. Still -- last year Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, Alan Arkin, Jennifer Hudson, Martin Scorcese and The Departed either won or got nominated by the IPA, so at the very least we can see these as prescient, if not influential.

The main nominations (for the entire list, click here):

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Julie Christie, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart" (Paramount Vantage)
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Stephanie Daley" (Regent Releasing)
Keira Knightly, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Laura Linney, "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Denzel Washington, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)
Josh Brolin, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Christian Bale, "Rescue Dawn" (MGM)
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"(Roadside Attractions)
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent Pictures)

More than one option

• (Person) Tommy Lee Jones
• (Person) Tommy Lee Jones

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Katherine Heigl, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Amy Adams, "Enchanted" (Walt Disney Pictures)
Ellen Page, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Emily Mortimer, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding" (Paramount Vantage)
Cate Blanchett, "I’m Not There" (The Weinstein Company)

More than one option

• (Person) Amy Adams
  Actor, Voice
• (Person) Amy Adams
• (Person) Amy Adams

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Richard Gere, "The Hoax" Miramax
Seth Rogen, "Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)
Ben Kingsley "You Kill Me" Ifc Films
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Clive Owen, "Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
Don Cheadle, "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Emmanuelle Seigner, "La Vie En Rose" (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax Films)
Taraji P. Henson "Talk to Me" (Focus Features)
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster" (Universal Pictures)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jeff Daniels, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Brian Cox, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Ben Foster, "3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)
Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jessie James" (Warner Bros. Pictures)

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Lookout" Miramax
"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
"Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
"No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
"3:10 To Yuma" (Lionsgate)

MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
"Hairspray" (New Line Cinema)
"Juno"(Fox Searchlight)
"Shoot ‘Em Up" (New Line Cinema)
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
"Knocked Up" (Universal Pictures)

DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)
Olivier Dahan, "La Vie En Rose" (Picture House Entertainment)
David Cronenberg, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
Sidney Lumet, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her" (Lionsgate)

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Scott Frank, "The Lookout" (Miramax Films)
Diablo Cody, "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
Kelly Masterson, "Before the Devil Knows You’Re Dead" (ThinkFilm)
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Nancy Oliver,"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM)
Steven Knight, "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
James Vanderbilt, "Zodiac" (Paramount Pictures)
Christopher Hampton "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country For Old Men" (Miramax Films)
David Benioff, "The Kite Runner" (Paramount Vantage)
Sarah Polley,"Away From Her" (Lionsgate)
Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus,"Lust, Caution" (Focus Features)

Most obvious miss: Atonement in the Drama category. Crash missed the IPA nomination two years ago, so this ain't no big thing. But it's interesting.

Great love for The Lookout, a film I enjoyed quite a bit earlier this year -- although how do you spread that love around and nothing for its star, Joseph Gordon-Levitt?

Best Actor Front Runners

Some old names, some new faces, and some possible Oscar winner repeats...

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Three past nominations and one win – the Academy loves him. If he can get a nod for his cartoonish work in Gangs of New York, he's a shoo-in here.

2. James McAvoy, Atonement

Got some nice recognition last year in the title role of The Last King of Scotland. If the female audience sighs when you’re onscreen, you’ve got a shot.

3. Denzel Washington, American Gangster

He picked up his only lead acting Oscar playing a baddie in Training Day – his intensity and onscreen presence is hard to deny.

4. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd

I could see Depp missing here, but he’s always high in the buzz early.

5. George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Clooney should see nominations coming down the road for years to come – he’s a popular boy in Hollywood.

6. Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War

Seems like forever since we’ve put Hanks’ name in the ring. Comeback player of the year?

7. Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

If the early buzz is any indication, he could sneak in on a wave of Wild love.

8. Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah or No Country for Old Men

Probably for the latter, even though Elah was a bigger role.

9. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

More likely a Supporting guy this year for Charlie Wilson’s War.

10. Frank Langella, Started Out in the Evening

The “old guy making a movie about being an old guy” nomination. Worked for O'Toole last year, didn't it?

Best Director Front Runners

Thank God Martin Scorcese won last year -- we can finally take the Marty topic off the table and talk about some new directors. We have the makings of an interesting race -- a few up-and-comers, an actor-turned-director, a couple of beloved indie touchstones and two bona fide directorial legends who have never won. Sorta like Marty -- OK, that's the last time his name comes up...

1. Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

Even if Country proves too violent for the Academy (and after last year's win for The Departed, the Academy won't have a leg to stand on), the Coen brothers are well overdue for a win. If the buzz continues, the nomination is a shoo-in.

2. Joe Wright, Atonement

Hollywood loved what he did with the whole Pride and Prejudice thing.

3. Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson’s War

Hasn’t won since The Graduate. Hasn't really been in the running lately.

4. Sean Penn, Into the Wild

The Academy loves actors-turned-directors, especially if their politics match.

5. Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Can you say “overdue?” The 83-year-old director has been nominated for 12 Angry Men, Serpico, Dog Day Afternoon, Network and The Verdict. Baby, that's a career. The Director category isn't known for makeup awards, but if Polanski can win...

6. Ridley Scott, American Gangster

Can you say “overdue” again? I can. I can also say "overrated."

7. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

A well-regarded screenwriter with a good debut. Probably not a top-five guy here.

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Could jump up if the movie does well and the critics drool over it. Like Wes Anderson, he's more fawned over by the critical folks than by the Academy.

9. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Schnabel won the Cannes award for Best Director.

10. Marc Forster, The Kite Runner

Fast becoming a director to be reckoned with. I can see Forster jumping up a few spots after the film's release.

Best Picture front-runners

This is going to be an interesting race -- the installed front-runner features a second-time director and some awfully young stars; it's closest competitor is drenched in blood and tension, and behind those two movies are films with star power and uncertainty. In other words, this baby be wide open.

These lists, by the way, are built purely on online buzz, hearsay, early reviews and pure guesswork. Don't take 'em to the bank just yet.

1. Atonement (Focus Features)

Director: Joe Wright

Cast: Kiera Knightley, James McAvoy, Vanessa Redgrave, Romola Garai, Saorise Ronan

Release Date: December 7

You have to go back to Shakespeare in Love to find a true costume romance winning Best Picture – and the last three winners (The Departed, Crash, Million Dollar Baby) were decidedly modern. My guess is that the Academy is hungry for another, and Atonement should more than fit the bill. Atonement has a certain English Patient-type vibe – devastatingly beautiful leads, tragic love, war and separation. Wright and Knightley worked together in the much-lauded Pride and Prejudice, and McAvoy is fresh off his title role in The Last King of Scotland. If the box office is good (and judging by the success of Ian McEwan’s novel, it should be) Atonement should be the early front-runner.

2. No Country for Old Men (Miramax)

Directors: Ethan and Joel Coen

Cast: Josh Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, Kelly McDonald, Woody Harrelson

Release Date: in theaters now

After two attempts at Hollywood-izing their style – one mediocre (Intolerable Cruelty) and one awful (The Ladykillers) – the Coen Brothers return to the themes of Blood Simple and Fargo: crime, small towns, decent folks in over their heads, and an incomprehensible menace. Last year’s win for The Departed proved that the Academy can stand a little blood and violence – which is good, ‘cause No Country has that in spades. Bardem and Jones are already getting whispers of acting nods (in the case of Bardem, more like a scream) and the Coen brothers should get directing and writing consideration. This has got the early buzz – although it seems like one of those films that’ll get all the praise and very little Oscar hardware.

3. Juno (Fox Searchlight)

Director: Jason Reitman

Cast: Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, JK Simmons

Release Date: December 5

The audience favorite at Toronto, Juno looks like the Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation candidate of 2007 – a quirky independent-ish movie about a teenager who gets knocked up by her best friend and decides to have the baby and give it up for adoption. Buzz is high – first-time screenwriter Diablo Cody is the talk of the town, Reitman appears to have built momentum after his first feature, Thank You for Smoking, and the cast is a who’s who of who’s cool. This one could catch fire.

4. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage/Focus Features)

Director: Sean Penn

Cast: Emile Hirsch, Catherine Keener, Hal Holbrook, Vince Vaughn, Jena Malone

Release Date: September 21 – I believe it’s still in theaters

This one seems to be ranking on a lot of pre-precursor lists, which surprised me. I haven’t seen it, and I certainly haven’t heard a ton of buzz on it, but folks close to the industry are giving it mentions, so we’ll see. The most talk I’ve heard is for Sean Penn’s directing and for Hal Holbrook, an actor who might fit the “due” slot in Supporting Actor.

5. Charlie Wilson’s War (Universal)

Director: Mike Nichols

Cast: Tom Hanks, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Julia Roberts, Ned Beatty, Amy Adams

Release Date: December 25

With most “topical” war movies falling by the way side (Rendition; The Kingdom; Lions for Lambs) this one looks like it could worm its way into the top five. A true story of a Congressman assisting Afghanistan in a covert war against the Soviet Union in the early 80s, Charlie Wilson’s War gets to be the Iraq War movie without having to take place in the present day. Hanks, Hoffman and Roberts have all won lead acting Oscars, and Nichols is a well-respected name. No one has seen the movie yet, but the Oscar pedigree can’t be ignored.

6. American Gangster (Universal)

Director: Ridley Scott

Cast: Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Ruby Dee, Ted Levine, Josh Brolin

Release Date: November 2, 2007

Lots to love here – big name director who has never won. Dueling Oscar-winning stars (although they don’t appear together until the end of the film.) Legendary actress Ruby Dee in a role destined for Supporting Actress. Big subject matter. Good box office. And yeah, I’m not seeing it ending up in the top five. But if one of the above films falters or under-performs, it could sneak in as this year’s Departed.

7. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.)

Director: Tony Gilroy

Cast: George Clooney, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, Sydney Pollack, Michael O’Keefe

Release Date: October 12

Talky brainy thrillers don’t tend to win over the Academy. But not all talky brainy thrillers star recent Oscar winner and Hollywood god Clooney, Academy favorite Wilkinson and criminally overdue Swinton. It’s a weak year for these kinds of movies – I can see the Academy making room for Clayton, especially if the three actors mentioned above get nods.

8. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage/Dreamworks)

Director: Marc Forster

Cast: Khalid Abdalla, Ali Dinesh, Abdul Salam Yusoufzai, Elham Ehsas

Release Date: December 14

Forster’s track record has been very good -- Monster’s Ball garnered an Oscar for Halle Berry, Finding Neverland picked up a surprising amount of Academy love, and Stranger Than Fiction was highly-regarded as well. Kite Runner – based on the beloved novel of the same name – might be his best shot so far. Serious, moving, relevant – but not without controversy.

9. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage)

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

Cast: Daniel Day-Lewis, Paul Dano, Kevin J. O’Connor, Ciaran Hinds, Dillon Freasier

Release Date: December 26

The long-awaited follow-up to 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love finds Paul Thomas Anderson in unfamiliar territory – a loose adaptation of an Upton Sinclair novel about oil, greed and evangelism at the turn of the century. Day-Lewis is an Academy darling, and I’ve heard Dano – nearly mute in Little Miss Sunshine – impresses the hell out of everyone as a child preacher with supposed healing powers. Other than No Country, this might be the most anticipated film of the year for movie snobs – which means it has a good chance of flopping with the Academy.

10. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dreamworks)

Director: Tim Burton

Cast: Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, Sasha Baron Cohen, Timothy Spall

Release Date: December 21

After the last few musical-to-film flops (Phantom, Rent, Producers) one has to approach Sweeney Todd with a skeptical eye in terms of Oscar potential. There’s probably enough Golden Globe love here to keep the movie in consideration – the rest will depend on box office. Look for Burton as a dark horse Director candidate – is it really possible he’s never even been nominated?

Oscar Season 2007!

With the last spoonful of stuffing -- the final drop of gravy -- the conclusive (and unnecessary) slice of pie -- it's time:

Oscar season is here. Yay! No more sequels, action flicks, romantic comedy copies, horror porn or movies that have been sitting on the shelf for three years. I ushered in the season with a pre-Thanksgiving viewing of No Country for Old Men (amazing) and immediately felt the urge to dig deep into the upcoming Oscar-bait movies -- which I spent most of Thanksgiving doing (between courses, of course.)

It stands to be an interesting year -- no Best Picture front-runners (yet), no "overdue" candidates on the horizon, no obvious fanboy picks (unless we start to see some heavy 300/Beowulf politicking); 2007 might just be a year where the best nominees win. Hehehehe. OK, that was funny. Sorry -- I'm still working my way through my Thanksgiving hangover. I'll come to my senses eventually.

The first blush of Oscar charts are on their way. Stay tuned...

The Hangover

And just like...it's over.

The Winners

Martin Scorcese -- not only for Director, but The Departed bucked some major trends (no Golden Globe, no PGA, no SAG Ensemble) to win Best Picture. Can't be mad, as the Academy picked a very good movie for its top award.

An Inconvenient Truth -- Two awards, the most ever for a documentary. Bonus points for Al Gore providing one of the best jokes of the night: his faux Presidential announcement being interrupted by the orchestra...

Alan Arkin -- The one true upset of the evening -- as with Scorcese, I'm glad to see him finally own an Oscar.


The Not-Winners

Dreamgirls and Babel -- 15 nominations between the two of them and only three Oscars (Score for Babel; Supporting Actress and Sound Mixing for Dreamgirls.)

The Orchestra -- Al Gore's joke aside, this whole musical bum-rush has got to stop. I don't care if the show is approaching its fourth hour -- fans of the Oscars are going to watch anyway. Let the winners talk, cry, laugh, stumble and be human.

That's enough of that. Next, we'll take a look ahead at possible nominees for this upcoming film season...

Scramble! Scramble!

Doping out your ballot for your big Oscar party on Sunday night and still have a few categories you're not sure about? A few thoughts on predicting the winners. (These are all generalizations and don't always work out. Please predict responsibly.)

1. Most Nominations = Most Wins

The film with the most nominations usually gets the most awards. That’s even true this year, as Dreamgirls – despite not picking up a nod in Picture or Director – has the best chance to land the most hardware by the end of the night.

2. Six is a Magic Number

Six nominations usually equals at least one award. This year's six-and-over crowd: Dreamgirls, Babel, Pan’s Labyrinth, and The Queen. Make sure you’ve got those four movies listed somewhere on your ballot. Hmmmm, I wonder what award The Queen is going to win…

3. Lead Roles get Supporting Awards

This happens every year: true supporting performances get overshadowed by "supporting" performances that are actually lead (or co-lead) roles. The respective studios push these performances in the supporting category to increase their actor's chance of winning. Jennifer Hudson and Abigail Breslin certainly qualify in Supporting Actress; the Supporting Actors this year are true supporters, so you’ll have to figure that one out for yourself.

4. BP Nominees Get an Award

Usually. If you’re stuck on who to pick in Sound Mixing, you might want to throw Letters from Iwo Jima in there based on this (especially if you don’t think it’ll win Best Picture. Funny how that movie’s chances to win are either the biggest prize of the evening or an obscure Tech award. Did I mention this was a weird year?)

5. Know Your Guilds

When it comes to techs, the BP front-runner usually gets the lionshare. This year we don’t have a BP front-runner, so you should know who won the respective Guilds. They don't always go hand-in-hand, but if you're stumped, it's a good guess. Check out my post entitled “Guild Round Up.”

6. Documentary Short, Short Film Animated, Short Film Live

Guesses all. Have you seen them? Probably not. Roll the dice.

And…I’m spent. Have fun Sunday and we'll recap Monday morning...

Final Predictions

The wild-and-wooly Oscar ride is just about over, and it’s time to make the final predictions. Oy.

Upsets and surprises have become the norm at the Oscars – which is amazing considering how much more time and energy Oscar prognosticators spend nowadays crunching numbers, assessing trends and following buzz. Two years ago was supposedly Scorcese’s year – until Million Dollar Baby came out of nowhere and won the hearts of the Academy. Last year, Brokeback Mountain won every precursor down the pike, but it came down to voter apprehension, allowing Crash to sneak past and win. Keep your facts and formulas – the human factor is the key to who wins.

And there’s the rub: we don’t know how the 5900-odd members of the AMPAS are feeling right now. Contentious? Happy? Hungry? Full of love? Full of beans? We’ll only know after the fact. In the meantime, we guess.

I’m going to go out on several limbs this year – mainly because of the factor of the unknown. Besides, what’s life without adventure?

Picture: Letters from Iwo Jima

Let’s break it down this way:

If you are inclined to go with history, pick Babel -- the most nominations of all the BP films, including Director and Editing, two acting nods, serious subject matter etc.

If you think the most successful movie wins, go with The Departed -- big box office, heady stars, and Scorcese’s DGA win ain’t too shabby either…

If you think the vote is all about the “awwwwww” factor, pick Little Miss Sunshine. The only heartwarmer of the bunch…

So, why Letters?

Because I think this is an odd year. Because I think the bulk of the Academy didn’t see it until after the nominations came out – and it still got enough love to get nominated. Because the flaws in the other movies are the type of flaws that usually pre-empt a win (too confusing, too cute, too stiff, too violent.) Because the Academy might jump at the chance of seeing both Eastwood and Steven Spielberg (one of Letters’ producers) on stage at the same time. Most of all - because I believe after they see Letters they won’t have a choice.

Director: Martin Scorcese, The Departed

The film world finally showed Scorcese the love this year – he wins hands down.

Actor: Peter O’Toole, Venus

It’s an interesting category – four out of the five nominees are the only nominations for their respective film (something that happens more often in Actress.) It’s been all Whitaker in the precursors, but I think the Academy will take the opportunity to reward a veteran actor that’s never won – they usually do.

Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen

‘Nuff said.

Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

This is even tougher for me than Actor. Murphy, like Whitaker, has been the front-runner forever – but I’ve got this Jack Palance-type feeling about Arkin.

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

She weathered the backlash like a pro. She may not deserve it, but she’s definitely earned it.

Original Screenplay: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine

Adapted Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed

Best Picture consolation prizes (or, if you’re so inclined, a portent of things to come.)

Foreign Language: Pan’s Labyrinth

I’ve heard a surge for the German black comedy The Lives of Others – if you want to pick an upset here, go with that. For me, Pan’s Labyrinth could take home the most Oscars of the night, so I don’t think I’ll pick against it here.

Animated Feature: Cars

The Annie winner usually wins the Oscar.

And the rest…

Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth

Cinematography: Children of Men

Costume Design: Dreamgirls

Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

Documentary Short Subject: Two Hands

Editing: Babel

Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth

Score: Philip Glass, Notes on a Scandal

Song: “I Need to Wake Up” from An Inconvenient Truth

Animated Short: The Little Matchgirl

Live Action Short: West Bank Story

Sound Editing: Letters from Iwo Jima

Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls

Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

What the experts are saying...

Perusing the prognosticators...

Actor: Most pundits are sticking with Whitaker, except for Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil, who has got O'Toole winning.

Actress: Try finding someone -- anyone -- to predict someone other than Mirren. Good luck with that.

Supporting Actor: Dead heat -- I'm finding equal support for Arkin and Murphy. O'Neil, Jeffrey Wells, Claudia Puig (USA Today) and Steve Pond of The Envelope have Arkin winning, while Peter Travers, Richard Roeper, Gene Seymour (Newsday) and Sam Rubin (KTLA) are sticking with Murphy.

Supporting Actress: Jefferey Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere likes Abigail Breslin -- the rest of the fleet are on the Hudson train.

Picture: As you might expect, this one is still a mess: Roeper, Wells and Peter Hammond of Hollywoodwiretap have moved to Babel; O'Neil, Pond and Rubin got The Departed and Travers, Puig and Seymour like Little Miss Sunshine. And then there's brave Kris Tapley of In Contention, who is still favoring Letters from Iwo Jima. You're a better man than I, Gunga Din.

Oscar Analysis: Picture

Before we get into this marsh, let's just put this out there: this is the tightest Best Picture race since 1981, when Chariots of Fire shocked everyone by beating Reds, On Golden Pond, Missing and Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Most prognosticators like to find a similar year and start drawing lines between that year and the present race. "The Queen is this year's Chariots of Fire, Little Miss Sunshine is On Golden Pond" and so on. I ain't gonna do that, 'cause you really can't. The only similarity is that this race, like in 1981, is totally up in the air. The only difference: this year, we know it.

Any of these five can win. Any of them. The race has seemingly narrowed to Babel vs. Departed vs. Sunshine, but don't believe it. The unexpected snub of Dreamgirls means one thing: we have no idea what the Academy as a whole are thinking.

I almost listed these five as 1a, 1b, 1c etc. Then I got a little Dutch courage (thanks, Dewars!) and I'm ready to rock.

1. Little Miss Sunshine

Producers: David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf and Marc Turtletaub.

Oscar History: First time nominations for all three.

Awards: Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild Ensemble, AFI Movie of the Year and NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: A functional dysfunctional New Mexico family travels to California in a beat-up VW bus so that the youngest daughter can compete in a beauty pageant. Hilarity and dramedy ensues.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 91%

Praise: “A road-trip tale with a much stronger point to make than B from A, and not just in the third act. It's the genre's greatest blend of slapstick, sincerity and satire since Albert Brooks' Lost in America.” – State Journal-Register (Illinois)

Jeers: “Assemble a talented troupe, add a dysfunction-by-numbers script, throw in moments of tiny triumphs and stir. Then burp.” – Time Out New York

Pros: The big hit from last year’s Sundance festival proved to be a surprise box office hit and is doing very well on DVD. It’s the only one of the five that can be described as “heartwarming” – and in a year with no clear front-runner, the Academy may respond in kind.

Cons: Comedies have done historically bad in the Best Picture race – you have to go back to Annie Hall to find a pure comedy winner. The Director snub didn’t help. Will it have the support of the tech members of the Academy?

Odds: The slim – very slim – extremely slim – favorite.

2. The Departed

Producer: Graham King

Oscar History: King was previously nominated for The Aviator.

Awards: Broadcast Film Critics Association; Golden Satellite; Boston, Chicago, Florida, Las Vegas and Southeastern Florida Film Critics; NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: Two cops – a corrupt officer acting as a mole for a crime boss, and a loyal cadet working undercover for the same crime boss – work parallel to ferret each other out. Extreme violence ensues.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 93%

Praise: “For all its bloodletting, The Departed is an intoxicating film. It's a film that'll have your hands over your face with one eye peeking: The violence sickens, but the movie seduces.” – Houston Chronicle

Jeers: “Redolent of four-letter words, Scorsese's flatulent Boston massacre doesn't amount to a hill of beans ... It's easily his worst film since Cape Fear. How bad is GoodFellas Does Boston? So bad that even Nicholson is a deadly bore.” – Boulder Weekly

Pros: Big-named cast, big-time director, big box office, bit critical respect – looks like a winner to me…

Cons: The Academy usually doesn’t reward violent movies unless the violence takes place in an historical context (Gladiator, Braveheart, The Godfather) or as some part of a character’s redemption (Unforgiven; Silence of the Lambs.) It’s also rare that a remake wins Best Picture (the last one to do so I believe was Ben-Hur.)

Odds: Neck-and-bloody-neck with Sunshine and…

3. Babel

   

Producers: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Jon Kilik and Steve Golin

Oscar History: Iñárritu is nominated in the Director category. Kilik and Golin are first-timers.

Awards: Golden Globe (Drama); AFI and NBR Top Ten.

Synopsis: In four countries, three separate stories unfold – the shooting of an American citizen in Morocco, a Mexican nanny in trouble while crossing the US border, and a deaf-mute Japanese girl in Tokyo. Communication and healing ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 68%

Praise: “Its complex (yet not mystifying) storytelling, forceful character development, and superb cinematography make this a candidate for one of 2006's best offerings.” – Reelviews

Jeers: “If Babel were a football game, I'd flag it 15 yards for piling on. Others may want to give it an Oscar. To each his own.” -- Newsweek

Pros: A serious movie with international appeal. It’s got the most nominations of all the BP movies – that usually corresponds with winning BP.

Cons: As you can see by the Rotten Tomatoes ranking, people were mixed on this movie. Yes, Crash had a similar ranking last year, but it had the benefit of going up against a polarizing movie in Brokeback Mountain; Babel doesn’t have that.

Odds: Some are still predicting this movie to win…and it still can.

4. Letters from Iwo Jima

Producers: Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz

Oscar History: Eastwood has had three movies nominated for Best Picture (Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby) and won two. Lorenz was also a producer on Mystic River. Spielberg has had five movies he’s produced nominated for BP (ET, The Color Purple; Schindler’s List; Saving Private Ryan, Munich) and won once.

Awards: National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics winner.

Synopsis: A small segment of the Japanese army readies for an overwhelming attack by the US on the island of Iwo Jima. Reminiscing and self-sacrifice ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 91%

Praise: “This is a mournful, difficult film, but also a masterful one. Eastwood finds pockets of kindness and humanity where you'd least expect them, and once again cements his hard-earned reputation as the restless inquisitor of our national mythologies.” – Philadelphia Weekly

Jeers: “The project lacks the variety of sensuous pleasures that a great movie has to provide.” – New Yorker

Pros: Letters is thought of as the movie that knocked Dreamgirls out of BP contention, which means that it has staunch support in the Academy. We know they love Eastwood – if he can win for a boxing movie, it should stand to reason that he can win for a WWII film.

Cons: Entered late in the race and never really gained much traction. Zero Guild nominations – that ain’t good. Eastwood just won BP for Million Dollar Baby two years ago – too soon for another?

Odds: A dark horse – one that I may end up predicting to win (if I feel brave.)

5. The Queen

Producers: Andy Harries, Christine Langan and Tracey Seaward

Oscar History: All are first time nominees.

Awards: New York Film Critics Online; BAFTA, Toronto.

Synopsis: Upon the tragic death of Princess Diana in 1997, Queen Elizabeth’s stoic reaction sparks outrage in the United Kingdom, leaving new Prime Minister Tony Blair to convince her to change with the times. Bowing and curtseying ensue.

Rotten Tomatoes ranking: 98% (the best of all five films)

Praise: “So magnificent in so many ways that, for the first time, it seems to raise the docudrama to high art.” – Seattle PI

Jeers: “"...slow and inaccurate...nothing I'd want to sit through if I knew what was in store for me, unless I just wanted to see a good impersonation of Queen Elizabeth and a bad impersonation of the eloquent Tony Blair." – tonymedley.com

Pros: Hard to find many who hate this film…

Cons: …but also hard to find many who love it. Reviews have been mostly glowing about Mirren’s work and ho-hum about the script and directing.

Odds: Perhaps the only one you can truly count out of the race…I think.

Next up: final predictions.

Oscar Analysis: Director

For the record -- if Scorcese gets beaten by Eastwood for a second time, I'm going to laugh my ass off. Not 'cause I hate Scorcese, but just to listen to the fanboys whine and moan.

1. Martin Scorcese, The Departed

Oscar History: Hey, have you heard that Scorcese has never won an Oscar? He’s been nominated seven times – five for directing (Raging Bull; The Last Temptation of Christ; Goodfellas; Gangs of New York; The Aviator) and twice for writing (The Age of Innocence; Goodfellas.)

Awards: Plenty – the biggies include the Directors Guild, the Golden Globe and the National Board of Review.

Praise: “…the film shows the legendary director dropping the bids for industry respectability that have preoccupied him over the past decade and doing what he does best.” – Boston Globe

Pros: It’s been a year of firsts for Marty – first Golden Globe win, first Directors Guild win…the Oscar should follow suit, right?

Cons: The man’s been overdue more times than a library book – remember when he was a shoo-in for The Aviator?

Odds: A semi-cautious lock.

2. Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima

Oscar History: Eastwood’s got two Oscars for directing (Unforgiven; Million Dollar Baby) one nomination for directing (Mystic River) and two nominations for acting (Unforgiven; Million Dollar Baby.)

Awards: Surprisingly none.

Praise: “One may argue with Eastwood's filmmaking strategies but the general just gravitates toward blazing new movie trails; it's in his genetic makeup as much as in his ammo belt.” – Cinema Signals

Pros: Eastwood is Eastwood – you know the Academy loves him. Directing two movies on the same subject in the same year (at age seventy-freakin’-six!) is no small feat, and the Academy loves rewarding feats (like Peter Jackson’s win for the LOTR trilogy, or Steven Soderbergh’s directing Traffic and Erin Brockovich in the same year.)

Cons: He just won two years ago, beating Scorcese and incurring the wrath of filmgeeks everywhere. Plus, Letters didn’t turn into the big film some thought it would.

Odds: He’s the only one with a shot to topple Marty, but I’m not feeling it.

3. Paul Greengrass, United 93

Oscar History: First nomination for Greengrass

Awards: British Academy Award winner; Los Angeles, London, San Francisco, Kansas City and the National Society of Film Critics winner.

Praise: “Paul Greengrass has taken the all-too-familiar events of 9/11 and has created an emotionally charged human drama without stooping to melodramatics or sensationalizing.” – Journal and Courier

Pros: The Los Angeles and BAFTA wins shouldn’t be taken lightly – he’s nominated because he’s got some avid supporters…

Cons: …but does he have enough to overcome the big two in front of him? And did enough Academy voters see United 93 to vote for it?

Odds: He should win, but he’s not going to.

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Babel

Oscar History: First nomination for Iñárritu.

Awards: Cannes

Praise: “Iñárritu is an exceptionally gifted director who makes each individual scene in Babel work beautifully.” – KPBS.org

Pros: Babel has still got a shot at Best Picture, which keeps Iñárritu safely in play.

Cons: Even if Babel wins BP, you got to think either Scorcese or Eastwood would top Iñárritu here.

Odds: He’ll be back.

5. Stephen Frears, The Queen

Oscar History: Previously nominated in 1990 for The Grifters.

Awards: Toronto Film Critics.

Praise: “Frears' masterstroke is making it a thoroughly sympathetic portrait of Elizabeth, Charles and the entire concept of the monarchy.” – Las Vegas Weekly

Pros: 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes – there’s a lot of love (and little hate) for this movie…

Cons: …but is that love for Frears or Mirren? I’m thinking Mirren.

Odds: Not this year.